Tribal politics.

When you listen to the tribal politics of the United States, you know where Hilary and Bernie stand, you know where Jeb, Cruz and Rubio stand, and you may think you know where The Donald stands, but since not even he knows where he stands it is safe to assume he'll stand where he can piss on everyone else without peeing on himself. The Right and the  Left in the US are well defined and the shades of grey between each have the added advantage of advocates who passionately articulate and fight for them every single day. It is why the Big Tents that are the GOP and the Democratic Party have survived for decades.

The same can be seen in the United Kingdom, India, Australia, France, Germany, Chile, Argentina and Mexico. In Kenya the most important factor that informs our virulent form of tribal politics is the utter lack of ideological or philosophical coherence. We define ourselves by our ethnic or linguistic tribes, taking our cues from the men and women we have chosen to elect again and again. And for that folly, really, a political party is a mere convenient vehicle, designed to pursue one object only: to fight an election. It is not founded on any principles or ideology; it's utility is quite limited in the political grand scheme of things. It is pointless to ask for the ideologies or principles of Kenya's political parties; our politicians have none and neither do we.

There is a whiff of the hypocritical about the outrage over the Jubilee Party. Maybe Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, TNA's and the URP's supremos, have a long-term game plan when it comes to the parties they head, but I am not putting money down. Mr Kenyatta's move from KANU to TNA was as calculated as was Mr Ruto's from UDM to UDF to URP. Their previous parties were vehicles of convenience and it will turn out that the Jubilee Party is too. Therefore, it doesn't need an ideology or principles; all it needs is to win!

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have been consistent in what they want: to keep ODM's Raila Odinga out of State House. They have succeeded. If they keep their nerve in 2016, and through August 2017, Mr Odinga will remain the best president Kenya never had - together with Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua and Kenneth Matiba. Mr Odinga is partnered by Moses Wetangula, whose constituency is as puny as his reputation, and Kalonzo Musyoka who has proven incapable of corralling the canny Machakos Governor. The Coalition for Reforms and Democracy is a joke and if the Jubilee party does materialise, it will crush the CORD just as the Jubilee Alliance did in 2013. Back then it had nothing to do with ideologies or principles and everything to do with raw tribal numbers. Jubilee had the numbers; CORD most certainly did not.

2017 will still be a game of tribal arithmetic. It would be nice to imagine that the tribes we're talking about are conservatives, liberals, libertarians, progressives, greens, pro-lifers, pro-choicers, social democrats, Christian democrats, communists, socialists, and the like. But that will not be and I am willing to put money down for that. This is who we are and it is time we embraced our true nature. When we choose our political champions, their notoriety notwithstanding, the first thing Kenyan voters take into consideration is: does he belong to my tribe? When we finally transcend the ethno-linguistic tribe, perhaps that question will gain credible salience and import. That day, my friends, is still far away.