Kenya v al Shabaab: to what end?

Is Kenya at war in Somalia? If so, who is Kenya at war with? Is the African Union at war in Somalia? If so, who is the African Union at war with? 

Between 1945 and 1990, the world was in the grip of the Cold War, an "existential" war between the capitalist "West" and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics' "communism." After the co-ordinated attacks by al Qaeda in September 2001, the United States declared a Global War on Terror, and the world's powers were asked to pick a side. You were either with the United States or you were with "the terrorists." Kenya joined that war much earlier, in 1998, with the co-ordinated al Qaeda attacks in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, but it went all in with Operation: Linda Nchi in 2011 when it sent the Kenya Defence Forces to Somalia "in hot pursuit" of al Shabaab, which had waged a war of terror along the Kenyan border with Somalia and, later, attacks in Nairobi and Garissa.

Using the same rhetoric as the United States government, the Government of Kenya has declared on several occasions that the war with al Shabaab is an existential war and that Kenya must defeat al Shabaab or Kenya will cease to exist as a viable state, for that is the meaning of an existential war. During the Cold War, a potential war between the United States'-led capitalist West and the USSR would have led to the total destruction of not just the United States and the Soviet Union, but of the whole world because both sides possessed stockpiles of advanced weapons and weapons' delivery systems. 

Al Shabaab does not possess weapons of mass destruction. It does not have a standing army. It does not command the absolute loyalty of the people for whom it claims to fight. Its ideology does not command the loyalty of the people, save for fanatics. While the Government of Kenya commands the loyalty of the people and its ideology, such as it is, commands the loyalty of the people, it does not possess weapons of mass destruction. The war between Kenya and al Shabaab is not an existential war. It never was. The war between al Qaeda, and now ISIS, and the United States'-led coalition of the willing is not an existential war, though by the time it is over, millions will have died.

Between 1964 and 1972, the United States waged a war of attrition in Vietnam because of the Cold War. The logic of it all was that if North Vietnam fell to the communists, it would have a domino effect, and the falling dominoes would move the whole of South East Asia into the communist side, affecting the national interest of the United States. After September 2001, the United States has argued that if terrorist organisations "win" they will affect the security of every nation on Earth. This logic informs the Government of Kenya's decision to wage war in Somalia as part of AMISOM to defeat al Shabaab.

The Vietnam war ended with the defeat of the United States. After the deaths of 58,000 soldiers, the United States was forced to capitulate and negotiate with the belligerents, the North Vietnamese Army and the Vietcong. Unified Vietnam still ended up as a communist state. The United States' Global war on Terror has not been won. The United States has waged war against al Qaeda, the Taliban and ISIS. Despite massive losses on the field of battle, the terrorists continue to wage guerrilla war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and on mainland Europe in the United Kingdom, Spain and France. Boots on the ground, aerial bombardment and drones in the air will not win the United States this war. AMISOM, too, will not defeat al Shabaab on the ground or in the air.

A war ends when both sides declare it to be over. ISIS or al Shabaab will never capitulate, they will never declare the war over. Their ideology will never allow it. Kill all their top echelon leaders, and new ones will step into the bridge. The United States killed or captured the top commanders of al Qaeda, yet it still morphed into ISIS. Top al Shabaab commanders have been killed or captured over the past five years, yet it still finds new commanders to step into the breach. This war will never be won. That is not its ideology.

This brings us back to this: why is Kenya in Somalia? Why is AMISOM in Somalia? What we know is that al Shabaab committed grave atrocities in Kenya, affecting its financial markets and raising the cost of both public safety and national security. The Kenyan war in Somalia has not lowered these costs, and it has not prevented attacks on the homeland, the most notable being over the past three years: Westgate, Lamu, Mandera and Garissa. We know very little of the political and military goals in Somalia. We do not debate these issues, instead being exhorted to "support our troops" even though we know nothing of their mission. The United States was forced to capitulate in Vietnam after the costs of war became too much for the civilian population to bear. Kenya has lost men and women in the ground in Somalia, the latest being at El Adde. At some point we must ask, how many fighting men and women are we prepared to lose before we admit that we will never prevail against al Shabaab?