What is our plan?

The recent 'incursion' by elements of the Kenya Defence Forces into Somalia in pursuit of members of al Shabaab, an al Qaeda-affiliated militia responsible for murder and kidnapping across Kenya's border with the lawless Somalia elicited threats of retaliation from persons who claimed to speak for the terror group. This past Monday, two grenade attacks took place against civilian targets in Nairobi's Central Business District, killing one, but keeping the injury count mercifully low at less than 20. While police investigations are being conducted, speculation is rife that these attacks were by fifth-column elements of al Shabaab hiding in plain sight amongst the civilian population of Nairobi. Meanwhile, Kenyan politicians of Somali origin have thrown their might behind the government's efforts to neutralise the al Shabaab threat. However, noting the increased incidences of intimidation and discriminatory acts perpetrated against persons they claim to be innocent Somalis, they have called upon the government, in particular the security agencies, to proceed with great caution so that the civil liberties of the Somali community in Kenya are not held to ransom at the hand of the majority community.

As Kenya's 'incursion' into Somalia enters its eleventh day, it is becoming more and more apparent that the famed discipline of the Kenya's men and women in uniform is richly deserved (or, at least, we are very, very good at keeping news of indiscipline out of the national media). It is also becoming apparent that Kenya's foreign policy establishment leaves a lot to be desired. It was a mistake to re-appoint Moses Wetangula as the Minister for Foreign Affairs, though he seems to have the consummate diplomatic operator in Thuita Mwangi as his Permanent Secretary. It helps that Amb Francis Muthaura can be counted on to offer direction as Head of the Public Service. The Minister has been unable to craft a well-thought out diplomatic strategy in support of Kenya's operations in Somalia, failing even to get the President of the Somalia Transitional Federal Government to sing from the same song-book as his colleagues in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, IGAD. He has been unable to keep the intemperate Minister of State in the Office of the President for Defence, Yusuf Hajji, from speaking to the media, and when he does speak, to do so with circumspection and deliberation. And he failed spectacularly to get the President and Prime Minister to come out early with public statements to justify their going to war at a time when Kenya is facing severe budgetary contractions, its currency is at its weakest for almost a decade, and drought and famine-related emergencies have yet to be fully resolved.

On the home front, the Minister of State in the Office of the President for Internal Security and Provincial Administration, Prof George Saitoti, has come out of his shell and, it seems, lit a fire under his security chiefs asses to do more with significantly less. The Kenya Police Force (soon to be renamed the Kenya Police Service), the Administration Police Service, the Anti-Stock Theft Unit, and the General Service Unit have been placed on high alert, and despite the dastardly attacks of Monday, are responding as swiftly as possible to internal security events. Indeed, even the recent murderous squabbles over pasture in Isiolo South District have received the full attention of the Minister and his staff and he has assure the residents of the violence-prone area that the disarmament programme that had been suspended in the wake of the Referendum Campaign of 2010 will be revived and pursued with renewed vigour.

Despite all this, it remains unclear what our tactical and strategic objectives are as a country. All the players involved in this matter seem to have taken a holiday from advising anxious Kenyans of what is going on and what it is hoped will be achieved. Dr Nene Mburu, a former army officer, writing in today's Daily Nation, makes this point forcefully, going so far as to call the incursion a strategic miscalculation (Kenya's much-hyped incursion into Somalia a strategic miscalculation). Pointing out that al Shabaab is not a national army, does not fight under a national flag, and can easily disband and regroup, Dr Mburu argues that to eradicate it completely as threat would require the establishment of a fully functioning national government whose writ extended beyond o few neighbouhoods of Mogadishu to the whole country. He also points out that Kenya's push for the creation of Puntland as a nation-state to act as a buffer with war-torn Somalia proper would be a strategic mistake, as the instability in Somalia would still overwhelm Puntland and cross over into Kenya's North East. The bottom line, despite the tom-tomming of Kenya's punditocracy, is that unless we have a clear strategic objective or a credible exit strategy, our adventure in Somalia may come back to bite us in the ass.