Saturday, October 08, 2011

Iron fists and velvet gloves

Kenya's foreign policy cannot be held hostage to the demands of the Mt Kenya Mafia. Kenya is surrounded by nations that are either in transition or in complete disarray. Somalia has been a festering sore since Mohammed Siad Barre was deposed in 1990. South Sudan, Africa's newest nation-state is still grappling with the after-shocks of nearly forty years of civil war. Ethiopia and Uganda are quasi-democracies in the grip of men who know that they are the saviors of their nations and as such, indulge in regular intimidation of Kenya along their common borders. But it is Mwai Kibaki's foreign policy that has failed to forestall the regular territorial incursions from 'militias' in our neighbours' territories that betrays our utter lack of a coherent foreign policy.

Under President Moi, Kenya sought to bolster its security by engaging with other regional and international partners to find lasting solutions to the wars that bedevilled Somalia and Sudan, ending up with a peace of sorts in Sudan and a Transitional Federal Government in Somalia. Mwai Kibaki's government has attempted to build on the successes of the peace initiatives with a marked lack of success. Instead, his government has allowed the economic agendas of a few to dictate how and when Kenya will respond to the changing situations in the two countries. Even in its relations with Uganda and Ethiopia, the Government of Kenya has relied more on soft-power diplomacy than on the overt deployment and use of its vastly superior armed forces. The result has been a constant stream of talking shops that do not seem to resolve basic territorial issues. 

Ethiopia will go ahead with the massive dam project on the River Omo despite the fact that it will adversely alter the livelihoods of thousands in Turkana for the worse. South Sudan, now that it has gained independence from the North, will seek to bolster its territory by laying claim to Kenyan territory it claims was filched while it was busy prosecuting its civil war. The lack of a credible central government in Mogadishu has allowed the al Shabaab to visit indignities upon Kenyans and their visitors almost at will. President Kibaki's declaration that Kenya will defend its territory against all comers misses the point: force must be the last of a long series of overtures aimed at stabilising its back yard.

The recent attacks by elements of the al Shabaab in Lamu demonstrate that the work of living peaceably with the Republic of Somalia is not yet done. Kenya, and the world, need to re-engage more robustly with moderate elements in Somalia to stabilise the country. Without a functioning national government capable of enforcing its writ in the whole of Somalia, closing the border will only be a temporary solution to a strategic problem. What is needed is a strategic initiative to strengthen the Federal Government, ensure the active participation of all political elements in the governance of the country, and the elimination of extremists from the political and military arenas. This will go a long way in restoring stability along Kenya's border with Somalia and reducing the acts of terrorism by groups such as the al Shabaab.

Mwai Kibaki must jettison the commerce-led interventions of the past 7 years and pursue a multi-pronged strategy that calls into play its military, diplomatic, cultural and commercial elements. The al Shabaab must be reminded that Kenya's military may not have fought in a war, but it is well-trained, well-equipped and highly motivated. They must be persuaded that they can make more money through legitimate means than through religion-fuelled terrorism. For that, Mwai Kibaki must authorise Kenya's defense forces to enter Somali territory every time there is an incursion along our borders. Anything less, and we will be dealing with the al Shabaab for a long time to come.

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