Wednesday, October 26, 2011

KKV not enough to sink Odinga's chances

The Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, Dr Bonny Khalwale, has declared that if his Committee finds the Prime Minister liable for the Chinese accounting that took place in the Prime Minister's Office with regards to the World Bank monies meant for the highly popular Kazi Kwa Vijana programme, it will not hesitate to call for the Prime Minister to take political and personal responsibility for the quick-fingeredness of his mandarins. 

Prime Minister Raila Odinga managed to survive the maize scandal in 2008 by shifting the blame squarely on the Minister for Agriculture at the time, William Ruto, who has shown that he can give as good as he got. It is too bad that the people supporting his call for the PM to take responsibility, step aside and allow full and impartial investigations, are his fellow political travellers in the Gang of Seven Alliance, including the hapless Eugene Wamalwa, brother to the late, great Michale Kijana Wamalwa, and a putative presidential candidate in next year's general elections.

It is also too bad that the Kazi Kwa Vijana programme and the scandal it has now engendered do not have the same visceral appeal to the punditocracy as the maize scam did or the scandal that attached to the Kenya Primary Schools Support Programme that saw Education Minister Prof Sam Ongeri come under popular fire for the manner in which he had handled it. The Prime Minister has decided to keep mum over the matter, despatching loyal lieutenants to calm the political waters on his behalf. However, he may have miscalculated by having only loyal Luo Nyanza politicians fighting this particular battle on his behalf and if he is not careful, he may be tarred with the tribal brush putting paid to his presidential ambitions.

Love him or loath him, the PM is the consummate Kenyan politician of today, playing off his opponents against each other in a symphony that has prevented them from finding their political footing. He remains more popular than the leading lights of the Gang of Seven; every time they seem to land on a new strategy, it seems to wash off the PM's back like water off a duck's back. Despite what many perceive as autocratic tendencies in the manner that he has executed his duties as PM or as the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement Party of Kenya, Raila Odinga has emerged as a nuanced and pragmatic politician, capable of making hard decisions as and when needed. 

The manner with which he dumped Miguna Miguna is encouraging, given the untenable position his former Advisor on Coalition Affairs had placed him in. This time too he must act with ruthlessness; if there are public officers who abused their offices in the manner with which the handled the World Bank funds in the KKV programme, he must jettison them at the earliest opportunity and change the political narrative. Resignation is not an option he can exercise safely. Not if he wants to retain his position as the front-runner at the hustings next year.

Looking at the expanding field of presidential contenders, it is clear that at present Raila Odinga presents the people of Kenya with the best choice possible. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, unless the Pre-trial Chamber II comes back with a different decision, will have a hard time managing presidential campaigns while undergoing trial at The Hague. Eugene Wamalwa is a neophyte prone to intemperate statements and dodgy alliances. Martha Karua will not shake off her hard-eyed and steadfast support for President Kibaki in the aftermath of the 2007 general elections. Raphael Tuju and Peter Kenneth suffer from the fact that they do not seem to have constituencies larger than the ones that sent them to Parliament. Tuju, also, has to explain away how the good people of Rarieda got rid of him after just one term; claims of an ODM wave will no longer wash. Unless Raila Odinga makes serious political mistakes between now and 2August or December 2012, the presidency is his to lose.

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