How will it play out?

Uber is in the crosshairs of the existing taxi cab operators. With a floor of five hundred shillings per trip, it is revolutionising how Nairobians travel by taxi cab. The taxi cabs in its fleet are clean, well-driven and reliable. But it has disrupted the existing order. Uber members are now being attacked as they go about their business by members of the old order.

This is how I understand it. Uber is not exactly a taxi cab company. It is a system for arranging fares between a driver and a passenger. Uber doesn't own any taxi cabs in Kenya; it acts as an intermediary between the taxi cab operator and the fare-paying passenger. It will take a cut of the fare paid, exactly how much I do not know. There are obvious advantages. Those who sign up as drivers or users of the service must disclose their identities. Users and drivers alike rate each other; the rotten apples on either side will be weeded out. Those who behave will be rewarded.

The old order is in trouble, though. Many have been at the heart of heinous crimes. Many overcharge. Most of the taxi cabs in the old system are decrepit. The manner in which they operate is largely inefficient, contributing somewhat to the chaos on our roads by the amount of on-street parking bays they monopolise. While old taxi cab operators may have loyal customers, theirs is the way of the dinosour and if they do not change, it isn't just Uber alone that will bring them pain, but upstarts such as Easy Taxi and the other Uber imitators.

Their demands of the government have the whiff of panic about them and they must be considered carefully. The doubts surrounding the Uber payment system, and whether it contributes to the tax revenue of both the national and county governments, must be considered in full before a final decision is made.

The old taxi cab operators are a political constituency and if they feel threatened they may cause trouble for the politicians. There is something to be said about the effects of the disruption. There are many who will be out of a job, or who won't be able to make a decent living because of the loss of business to Uber and similar systems. There is an option, though: if every taxi cab joined one of the new systems, they could still operate with greater certainty. However, we must be alive to the risks too, especially uncompetitive behaviour and cartelisation of the taxi cab business which might stem the downward spiral of fares and instead, raise fares to exorbitant levels.

Depending on the way that the government responds to the protests by the old order, there is a chance that this whole thing will blow over soon enough. Nairobians too, are a funny lot. Commuters and matatu operators rejected the cashless system that the government tried to impose on them. But Nairobians who regularly use taxi cabs are a discerning lot most of the time. They want affordability, reliability and safety, but they are also loath to share their personal details with strangers. If they take to the Ubers and Easy Taxis of today in sufficient numbers, they may yet persuade the government to ignore the demands of the old order, forcing the old order to adapt to a changed market. It will be interesting to see how the Uber Taxi Wars play out.