What
shape will the next government take? It is impossible to predict
because of the fluid nature of political institutions. If there were
strong political parties that voters had confidence in, then the
line-ups of the various alliances and coalitions, not to mention of the
go-it-alone outfits would have been revealed at least by November. But
we don't, so we have to make do with what we can discern from the
political tea leaves.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi, former Minister for Justice Martha Karua, former Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth and former Permanent Secretary James ole Kiyiapi have served in government under Mwai Kibaki, and in the case of the first four, in the government of Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. They have an inkling of how to organise an administration, though they may not appreciate that the dynamics have undergone a sea-change since the promulgation of the Constitution in 2010. They may not appreciate too that Parliament is not going to the pliant House they have been witness to in the past. The role of the Speaker, the Leaders and the party Whips will be crucial to getting the agenda of the Executive implemented, if not in full, substantially.
It is the role of Parliament in shaping the next government that we are blindest. There is no indication which party will have a majority or whether the ruling party will have a majority in Parliament. Many are persuaded that there will be a divided government in 2013; a party in charge of Parliament, and another in charge of the Executive. But if the ruling party has a majority in Parliament, its agenda may yet be implemented. The risks are in the history of Parliament, especially over the past decade. Ever since President Moi decided to share power with Parliament, in his own fashion, it has gotten bolder in the way it conducted business. For the most part, the Ninth and Tenth Parliaments were a disappointment; Parliamentary committees became weapons to be employed against the members of the Cabinet who refused to play ball with their chairs or members. The bitter war between the Defense and Foreign Relations Committee and the Minister for Foreign Affairs over the Japanese embassy scandal is a pointer to how difficult the relationship between the Executive and Parliament may get.
A new President will have to get his Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries approved by Parliament before he can govern. Once they have been approved and their appointments made, legislating the president's agenda may prove difficult in the first few months. No procedures have been agreed upon on how legislative proposals will be considered and how they will be shepherded in Parliament. The area of greatest contention is likely to revolve around the budget: if the two do not get along, the budget may be delayed, which may have knock-on impacts on the operations of the Executive, as on that of the devolved government.
From their performance in the Presidential Debate, the candidates dis not seem to appreciate that the Executive must partner with Parliament in order to succeed as an administration. Paul Muite, perhaps more than Mohammed Abduba Dida, failed to grasp this fact when he declared that he would go to war over Migingo Island and the Elemi Triangle. He forgot that a declaration of war could only proceed with the approval of Parliament. All of them had lofty ideas about education, security and healthcare; none of them considered that all appropriations would have to be made with the approval of Parliament. Even if they did not consider seriously the revenue-collection angle of the challenges they laid for themselves, surely it would have been helpful to address the manner in which they'd get their budgets approved by Parliament.
All in all, our presidential candidates seem to be living in a time warp, believing that the power of the presidency is sufficient to guarantee that the will succeed where they think Jomo Kenyatta, Moi or Kibaki has not. The reality, as always, is far more complex and complicated. Their refusal to share their detailed plans of how they will organise their administrations and how they will govern are cause for pause. It is really too bad we do not have smarter alternatives in the race.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi, former Minister for Justice Martha Karua, former Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth and former Permanent Secretary James ole Kiyiapi have served in government under Mwai Kibaki, and in the case of the first four, in the government of Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. They have an inkling of how to organise an administration, though they may not appreciate that the dynamics have undergone a sea-change since the promulgation of the Constitution in 2010. They may not appreciate too that Parliament is not going to the pliant House they have been witness to in the past. The role of the Speaker, the Leaders and the party Whips will be crucial to getting the agenda of the Executive implemented, if not in full, substantially.
It is the role of Parliament in shaping the next government that we are blindest. There is no indication which party will have a majority or whether the ruling party will have a majority in Parliament. Many are persuaded that there will be a divided government in 2013; a party in charge of Parliament, and another in charge of the Executive. But if the ruling party has a majority in Parliament, its agenda may yet be implemented. The risks are in the history of Parliament, especially over the past decade. Ever since President Moi decided to share power with Parliament, in his own fashion, it has gotten bolder in the way it conducted business. For the most part, the Ninth and Tenth Parliaments were a disappointment; Parliamentary committees became weapons to be employed against the members of the Cabinet who refused to play ball with their chairs or members. The bitter war between the Defense and Foreign Relations Committee and the Minister for Foreign Affairs over the Japanese embassy scandal is a pointer to how difficult the relationship between the Executive and Parliament may get.
A new President will have to get his Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries approved by Parliament before he can govern. Once they have been approved and their appointments made, legislating the president's agenda may prove difficult in the first few months. No procedures have been agreed upon on how legislative proposals will be considered and how they will be shepherded in Parliament. The area of greatest contention is likely to revolve around the budget: if the two do not get along, the budget may be delayed, which may have knock-on impacts on the operations of the Executive, as on that of the devolved government.
From their performance in the Presidential Debate, the candidates dis not seem to appreciate that the Executive must partner with Parliament in order to succeed as an administration. Paul Muite, perhaps more than Mohammed Abduba Dida, failed to grasp this fact when he declared that he would go to war over Migingo Island and the Elemi Triangle. He forgot that a declaration of war could only proceed with the approval of Parliament. All of them had lofty ideas about education, security and healthcare; none of them considered that all appropriations would have to be made with the approval of Parliament. Even if they did not consider seriously the revenue-collection angle of the challenges they laid for themselves, surely it would have been helpful to address the manner in which they'd get their budgets approved by Parliament.
All in all, our presidential candidates seem to be living in a time warp, believing that the power of the presidency is sufficient to guarantee that the will succeed where they think Jomo Kenyatta, Moi or Kibaki has not. The reality, as always, is far more complex and complicated. Their refusal to share their detailed plans of how they will organise their administrations and how they will govern are cause for pause. It is really too bad we do not have smarter alternatives in the race.
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