Unless
you are a professional statistician, the opinion polls are of interest
only if they persuade you that your favourite politician is on his way
to State House. To the millions of Kenyans who don't have the capacity
to "unpack" the finer details of the polls, the debate surrounding the
veracity of the polls is neither here nor there. Mutahi Ngunyi, a
respected political analyst, begs Raila Odinga to ignore the polls that
place him ahead of Uhuru Kenyatta because the raw numbers from the
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission reinforce another of
Mutahi Ngunyi's suppositions: that the presidential election is about
who can cobble together the greater tribal alliance. The one with the
most number of tribes behind him wins, so goes Mr Ngunyi's reading of
the 2013 tea leaves.
There are several dynamics at play in this election. The memory of the violence of 2007 and 2008 is still fresh in millions of Kenyans' minds. The Land Question has reared its ugly head once more. There is the changing demography of the nation that now has a larger cohort of youth than at any time in the past. The generational change question is also at play. As is the ICC issue. All these and many more will affect the outcome of the 2013 general election. It will not be the neat numbers game that Mr Ngunyi predicts.
Given the dynamics of a political contest, it is not easy to predict with precision how Kenyans will vote on the fourth of March. Opinion polls offer an idea; but they do not guarantee that the numbers will play out as everyone thins they will. It is for this reason that many supporters of James ole Kiyiapi and Peter Kenneth still see a glimmer of hope in their campaigns and continuously dismiss the opinion poll findings.
There is also great disillusionment with the performance of politicians over the past five years. The Tenth Parliament has really sullied the politicians' image in the eyes of many Kenyans. While millions will turn out for the vote , it is uncertain if the same faces will be seen in the new Parliament. Some of their antics left a very bitter aftertaste. Their unreasonable financial demands on the taxpayer especially pained hardworking Kenyans. It is unreasonable for an MP to earn tens of millions per year when a vast majority can barely eke out a living. If nothing else, this issue will determine the fate of many incumbents seeking re-election. Many may attend the rallies of their tribal flag-bearers, but they do so because they have nothing else to do: they have no jobs and no prospects and a day listening to "their man" is better than wasting the day away in a chang'aa den or some such place.
The demographic changes also offer a clue. The youth bulge that has been a boom to many rising economies may prove the undoing of many opinion polls. Many young people are not shackled to the tribal creed being peddled by all the analysts on TV today. Many are urbanised and have access to information in greater variety than even five years ago. Many of their sensibilities are shaped by what they watch on entertainment channels than what they hear at political rallies. Many identify with the challenges of their fellow youth than with the ambitions of tribal chieftains. They may upset the apple-cart in more ways than can be predicted by targetted opinion polls.
There are several dynamics at play in this election. The memory of the violence of 2007 and 2008 is still fresh in millions of Kenyans' minds. The Land Question has reared its ugly head once more. There is the changing demography of the nation that now has a larger cohort of youth than at any time in the past. The generational change question is also at play. As is the ICC issue. All these and many more will affect the outcome of the 2013 general election. It will not be the neat numbers game that Mr Ngunyi predicts.
Given the dynamics of a political contest, it is not easy to predict with precision how Kenyans will vote on the fourth of March. Opinion polls offer an idea; but they do not guarantee that the numbers will play out as everyone thins they will. It is for this reason that many supporters of James ole Kiyiapi and Peter Kenneth still see a glimmer of hope in their campaigns and continuously dismiss the opinion poll findings.
There is also great disillusionment with the performance of politicians over the past five years. The Tenth Parliament has really sullied the politicians' image in the eyes of many Kenyans. While millions will turn out for the vote , it is uncertain if the same faces will be seen in the new Parliament. Some of their antics left a very bitter aftertaste. Their unreasonable financial demands on the taxpayer especially pained hardworking Kenyans. It is unreasonable for an MP to earn tens of millions per year when a vast majority can barely eke out a living. If nothing else, this issue will determine the fate of many incumbents seeking re-election. Many may attend the rallies of their tribal flag-bearers, but they do so because they have nothing else to do: they have no jobs and no prospects and a day listening to "their man" is better than wasting the day away in a chang'aa den or some such place.
The demographic changes also offer a clue. The youth bulge that has been a boom to many rising economies may prove the undoing of many opinion polls. Many young people are not shackled to the tribal creed being peddled by all the analysts on TV today. Many are urbanised and have access to information in greater variety than even five years ago. Many of their sensibilities are shaped by what they watch on entertainment channels than what they hear at political rallies. Many identify with the challenges of their fellow youth than with the ambitions of tribal chieftains. They may upset the apple-cart in more ways than can be predicted by targetted opinion polls.
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