There
is something grotesque about the United States and the European Union
warning Kenyan voters that there will be "consequences" if the March
Fourth general election goes one way and not the other. On the one hand,
they extol the virtues of a free, unfettered vote; on the other, they
warn us of consequences if, presumably, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta
are elected. Of course, elections have consequences; it is up to the
people of Kenya to decide whether they can live with those consequences.
Today, not one Kenyan has been convicted at the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Four Kenyans stand accused of orchestrating the worst crisis in Kenya's history. They have professed their innocence to all and sundry until they are blue in the face. Three of them are standing for election: Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto share a ticket for the presidency while Joshua arap Sang is standing for a lesser position in his native North Rift. But it is the Uhuru/Ruto campaign that has attracted global attention. They are accused of being masterminds in the tit-for-tat violence that flared up after Mwai Kibaki was sworn in as president in 2007. Mr Ruto stands accused of, among other things, orchestrating the violence to protest Mwai Kibaki's re-election while Uhuru Kenyatta is accused of orchestrating revenge attacks in response.
Kenya's history of dealing with the post-election violence is abysmal. The Executive attempted time and again to fashion a "local mechanism" to address the violence, and the crimes that were committed without success. It was thwarted at every turn by the National Assembly whose rallying cry was "Don't be vague; go to The Hague!" When the matter was finally seized by the Prosecutor of the ICC and he launched his investigation into the "Kenya situation", many were not convinced that justice would be done in their lifetimes. Indeed, William Ruto predicted, wrongly as it turns out, that the matter would take 99 years to resolve. The ICC moved swiftly and the two cases are set down for trial one month after Kenyans go to the polls to elect a new government and Mwai Kibaki's successor.
While the US and the EU are exercised by the possibility of a Kenyatta presidency, the rest of the world does not seem to have an opinion one way or the other. Perhaps they are hoping to follow the US/EU lead and will do as they do. China has demonstrated an insatiable appetite for African natural resources. It is the natural counterbalance to the US/EU hegemony in Africa. How China reacts in the wake of the general election may determine how the rest of the world reacts. The so-called BRICs may not necessarily follow in the footsteps of the Africa's traditional "partners;" they may instead choose to pursue a more independent course given that their interests in Africa, and in Kenya particularly, may be in diametric opposition to the US/EU one.
International relations are founded on trade. Diplomacy, for the most part, revolves around smoothing the path to better trade relations. For this reason, one may caution that while the US/EU line may be founded on notions of human rights and good governance, what will determine their actions may be their trade relationship with the Government of Kenya. This relationship has evolved rather swiftly since the Chinese decided to broaden their horizons at the turn of the last century. China's thirst for raw material has led it into relationships that might not be countenanced openly in Washington D.C. or Brussels. Its dalliance with Omar Hassan el Bashir of Sudan is a case in point. He is the first sitting head of an African state to be indicted by the ICC, yet he still has profitable relations with China, the rising power in Asia. For this reason, even if the United States and the EU were to impose sanctions on Sudan, the effect may be ameliorated by the relationship with China. With hindsight, perhaps, Kenya's opening up to China, and to Asia generally, was a strategic move that may pay off if the US/EU alliance imposes sanctions on the election of Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenya's fourth president. Will the Anglos allow Kenya to be firmly pulled into the Chinese sphere of influence when their interests in the region are at a delicate stage?
This is not to say that it is right and proper for Kenyans to elect Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. But we cannot permit the West to take advantage of their circumstances to dictate terms to us. Unless the US wishes to make Kenya its fifty-first state, it best left to determine whether its interests will be served whether Uhuru Kenyatta is president or not. It is for the people of Kenya to decide whether the ICC indictments are sufficient reason to elect or not elect them. We have come a long way since the dark days of 2007 and 2008 and we have demonstrated that we no longer care that thousands were murdered, tens of thousands were maimed, and billions of shillings was lost, stolen or destroyed. We may claim to speak for the victims of the violence, but our actions speak louder: they are no longer the emotive issue they were even three years ago. We have moved on. Sad, but true.
Today, not one Kenyan has been convicted at the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Four Kenyans stand accused of orchestrating the worst crisis in Kenya's history. They have professed their innocence to all and sundry until they are blue in the face. Three of them are standing for election: Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto share a ticket for the presidency while Joshua arap Sang is standing for a lesser position in his native North Rift. But it is the Uhuru/Ruto campaign that has attracted global attention. They are accused of being masterminds in the tit-for-tat violence that flared up after Mwai Kibaki was sworn in as president in 2007. Mr Ruto stands accused of, among other things, orchestrating the violence to protest Mwai Kibaki's re-election while Uhuru Kenyatta is accused of orchestrating revenge attacks in response.
Kenya's history of dealing with the post-election violence is abysmal. The Executive attempted time and again to fashion a "local mechanism" to address the violence, and the crimes that were committed without success. It was thwarted at every turn by the National Assembly whose rallying cry was "Don't be vague; go to The Hague!" When the matter was finally seized by the Prosecutor of the ICC and he launched his investigation into the "Kenya situation", many were not convinced that justice would be done in their lifetimes. Indeed, William Ruto predicted, wrongly as it turns out, that the matter would take 99 years to resolve. The ICC moved swiftly and the two cases are set down for trial one month after Kenyans go to the polls to elect a new government and Mwai Kibaki's successor.
While the US and the EU are exercised by the possibility of a Kenyatta presidency, the rest of the world does not seem to have an opinion one way or the other. Perhaps they are hoping to follow the US/EU lead and will do as they do. China has demonstrated an insatiable appetite for African natural resources. It is the natural counterbalance to the US/EU hegemony in Africa. How China reacts in the wake of the general election may determine how the rest of the world reacts. The so-called BRICs may not necessarily follow in the footsteps of the Africa's traditional "partners;" they may instead choose to pursue a more independent course given that their interests in Africa, and in Kenya particularly, may be in diametric opposition to the US/EU one.
International relations are founded on trade. Diplomacy, for the most part, revolves around smoothing the path to better trade relations. For this reason, one may caution that while the US/EU line may be founded on notions of human rights and good governance, what will determine their actions may be their trade relationship with the Government of Kenya. This relationship has evolved rather swiftly since the Chinese decided to broaden their horizons at the turn of the last century. China's thirst for raw material has led it into relationships that might not be countenanced openly in Washington D.C. or Brussels. Its dalliance with Omar Hassan el Bashir of Sudan is a case in point. He is the first sitting head of an African state to be indicted by the ICC, yet he still has profitable relations with China, the rising power in Asia. For this reason, even if the United States and the EU were to impose sanctions on Sudan, the effect may be ameliorated by the relationship with China. With hindsight, perhaps, Kenya's opening up to China, and to Asia generally, was a strategic move that may pay off if the US/EU alliance imposes sanctions on the election of Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenya's fourth president. Will the Anglos allow Kenya to be firmly pulled into the Chinese sphere of influence when their interests in the region are at a delicate stage?
This is not to say that it is right and proper for Kenyans to elect Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. But we cannot permit the West to take advantage of their circumstances to dictate terms to us. Unless the US wishes to make Kenya its fifty-first state, it best left to determine whether its interests will be served whether Uhuru Kenyatta is president or not. It is for the people of Kenya to decide whether the ICC indictments are sufficient reason to elect or not elect them. We have come a long way since the dark days of 2007 and 2008 and we have demonstrated that we no longer care that thousands were murdered, tens of thousands were maimed, and billions of shillings was lost, stolen or destroyed. We may claim to speak for the victims of the violence, but our actions speak louder: they are no longer the emotive issue they were even three years ago. We have moved on. Sad, but true.
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