Raila
Odinga's "apology" to the Kalenjin and the United Republican Party;'s
reaction to it have been instructive. The Prime Minister is determined
to make good a promise he made to himself more than two decades ago. He
is going to be president of Kenya if it kills him. His single-minded
focus on the task has compelled him to make difficult choices in his
march to State House. In the aftermath of the 1992 debacle and after his
father's death in 1994, he made the difficult choice of abandoning
FORD-Kenya. in 2002, he had no qualms about a merger between his party,
the National Democratic Party, and KANU in which he was appointed KANU's
Secretary-General. As the merger collapsed, he had no qualms backing
Mwai Kibaki for the presidency or walking out of the government in 2005
in time to defeat the Wako Draft at the referendum. In 2007, he
swallowed his pride and formed an alliance with the likes of William
Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka, that latter betraying him and walking away, to
defeat Mwai Kibaki after just one term. He would not accept defeat in
the aftermath of the general election, calling for "mass action" to
challenge the presidential results, and determinedly abandoning those
who answered the call to mass action when the full force of Mwai
Kibaki's security apparatus was brought to bear against them.
The victims of the violence that took place after the 2007 general election were to be found in the Rift Valley and Central Kenya, with pockets of others in the Coast, Nyanza and Nairobi. Many of the youth arrested for the mayhem came from the Rift Valley. The men accused of masterminding the violence come from Central Kenya and the Rift Valley. Mr William Ruto, one of the accused persons, is widely regarded as the leader of the Rift Valley and the peoples of the Rift Valley, that is, the Kalenjin. The Chairman of the URP, former National Assembly speaker Francis Ole Kaparo, and other leading lights of the URP, are adamant that Mr Ruto is not a tribal chieftain whose forgiveness must be secured by Mr Odinga in his march to State House. Mr Kaparo and his colleagues insist that the URP is a national party and that it cannot be reduced to an outfit representing the interests only of the residents of the Rift Valley, that is the Kalenjin or the Maasai.
Mr Kaparo's stance is mere posturing. For some reason, Mr Kaparo's animus against the Prime Minister is quite extensive. It prevents Mr Kaparo from acknowledging the simple fact that in politics it is interests rather than friendship or enmity that determine political success. In Mr Kaparo's and his colleagues' vitriolic approach to any negotiation with the Prime Minister, they reduce their party to a vehicle for pursuing a political vendetta against the Prime Minister yet, from all available evidence, they have not been the victims of anything the Prime Minister has done in his years as a politician in Kenya. The only conclusion that one can draw from the level of their vitriol is that they are being employed as stalking horses for other interests. It might be that Mr Ruto is playing a double-blind game, but no evidence of such a scheme seems to be available at this moment. Indeed, until Mr Ruto's spectacular falling out with the Prime Minister, the likes of Francis Ole Kaparo and Aden Duale did not seem to have anything in common with him. Nether did the likes of Chirau Ali Mwakwere. There is nothing that indicates what their common ground (other than Prime Minister Odinga's political downfall) might be. Again, therefore, there must be some other force behind their determination to prevent any form of rapprochement between Prime Minister Odinga and the URP supremo.
Despite this, it is apparent that Mr Odinga, Mr Ruto, Mr Kenyatta, Ms Ngilu, Ms Karua, Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenneth are all strong candidates in their own right, with political narratives that can compete effectively against the others. It is also equally apparent that none of them is strong enough, yet, to take the presidency in the first round. It would be foolhardy, therefore, to strenuously denounce any public attempt at rapprochement between these men and women, especially if it leads to peaceful elections or a winning merger or coalition. Kenyans should start questioning the logic behind Mr Kaparo's and his colleagues' desire to keep Mr Ruto and Mr Odinga apart. For whom do they speak?
The victims of the violence that took place after the 2007 general election were to be found in the Rift Valley and Central Kenya, with pockets of others in the Coast, Nyanza and Nairobi. Many of the youth arrested for the mayhem came from the Rift Valley. The men accused of masterminding the violence come from Central Kenya and the Rift Valley. Mr William Ruto, one of the accused persons, is widely regarded as the leader of the Rift Valley and the peoples of the Rift Valley, that is, the Kalenjin. The Chairman of the URP, former National Assembly speaker Francis Ole Kaparo, and other leading lights of the URP, are adamant that Mr Ruto is not a tribal chieftain whose forgiveness must be secured by Mr Odinga in his march to State House. Mr Kaparo and his colleagues insist that the URP is a national party and that it cannot be reduced to an outfit representing the interests only of the residents of the Rift Valley, that is the Kalenjin or the Maasai.
Mr Kaparo's stance is mere posturing. For some reason, Mr Kaparo's animus against the Prime Minister is quite extensive. It prevents Mr Kaparo from acknowledging the simple fact that in politics it is interests rather than friendship or enmity that determine political success. In Mr Kaparo's and his colleagues' vitriolic approach to any negotiation with the Prime Minister, they reduce their party to a vehicle for pursuing a political vendetta against the Prime Minister yet, from all available evidence, they have not been the victims of anything the Prime Minister has done in his years as a politician in Kenya. The only conclusion that one can draw from the level of their vitriol is that they are being employed as stalking horses for other interests. It might be that Mr Ruto is playing a double-blind game, but no evidence of such a scheme seems to be available at this moment. Indeed, until Mr Ruto's spectacular falling out with the Prime Minister, the likes of Francis Ole Kaparo and Aden Duale did not seem to have anything in common with him. Nether did the likes of Chirau Ali Mwakwere. There is nothing that indicates what their common ground (other than Prime Minister Odinga's political downfall) might be. Again, therefore, there must be some other force behind their determination to prevent any form of rapprochement between Prime Minister Odinga and the URP supremo.
Despite this, it is apparent that Mr Odinga, Mr Ruto, Mr Kenyatta, Ms Ngilu, Ms Karua, Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenneth are all strong candidates in their own right, with political narratives that can compete effectively against the others. It is also equally apparent that none of them is strong enough, yet, to take the presidency in the first round. It would be foolhardy, therefore, to strenuously denounce any public attempt at rapprochement between these men and women, especially if it leads to peaceful elections or a winning merger or coalition. Kenyans should start questioning the logic behind Mr Kaparo's and his colleagues' desire to keep Mr Ruto and Mr Odinga apart. For whom do they speak?
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