No
one is surprised that the ever-vacillating vice-president has quit the
Gang of Seven. When Uhuru Kenyatta and his allies alluded to the
vice-president's record of picking low-hanging fruit, he was marking
time in the alliance until the time was tight for him to jump ship. But
the writing had been on the wall since the 2010 referendum; measured in
terms of the votes Kalonzo Musyoka delivered to his side, Uhuru Kenyatta
and William Ruto did much better even when they were on opposite sides
of the referendum question. All that remains to be determined is whether
Kalonzo Musyoka will heed the advise of Johnston Muthama and join hands
with Raila Odinga or he will, indeed, go it alone as he did in 2007.
Certain facts have changed since the last general election. For one, it is not a simple matter to craft a coalition after an election. Agreements must be filed with the Registrar of Political Parties well in advance if allies wish to share executive power. One of them must also abandon his party. Any post-election coalition can only work in the National Assembly. Recent talk of sharing the positions of Speaker, Majority Party Leader and Cabinet sots is only two-thirds possible; and that two-thirds will require the active acquiescence of the voters of Kenya. Not one presidential candidate can promise that any alliance he enters into will produce a majority in the National Assembly or Senate, control a majority of the county governments, or have the numbers to ram through a slate of Cabinet nominees.
Mr Musyoka must have realised that the manner he has been treated by his erstwhile allies is reminiscent of the manner he alleges he was treated by Raila Odinga and his allies on 2007; he was not going to be given the presidential nomination because of his seniority or his present position or the fact that of the three he is the only one not facing an international crimes indictment at the International Criminal Court. He must also have realised that he is being treated with contempt. Everyone is wooing everyone else because it is presumed that the other has the capacity to bring their ethnic blocs to the ballot as one group. In the eyes of Messrs Kenyatta and Ruto, Mr Musyoka is incapable of uniting the Akamba behind him; the Ukambani vote is split between Mr Musyoka and Charity Ngilu, with the John Harun Mwau factor yet to be considered. The two realise that Musalia Mudavadi commands a greater relative share of the Luhya vote compared to Mr Musyoka; this explains why he is constantly being linked to the Uhuru or Ruto camps and, strangely, not the Kalonzo camp.
Mr Musyoka has very little to show for nearly 30 years in the National Assembly and five years as vice-president. There are no signature achievements to his name. Even the lacklustre Mwai Kibaki managed to hold on to seniority in the opposition for a decade before finally taking the presidency in 2002. Raila Odinga is identified with the Second Liberation Movement. William Ruto has managed to supplant Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi as the doyen of the Rift Valley. Uhuru Kenyatta is Central Kenya's favourite son as Musalia Mudavadi is Western Kenya's. Mr Musyoka cannot even claim universal love from the peoples of Ukambani. No roads or dams or hospitals or schools or any public project is associated with him. Even in his signature achievement of the Somali peace process or the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement he has to share the limelight with President Moi and Gen Lazaro Sumbeiywo.He is, however, remembered for his steadfast loyalty to Moi and the Nyayoism that brought him to political prominence. He may have been more suave compared to Shariff Nassir and JJ Kamotho, but in his unswerving loyalty to an iniquitous system, he was unparallelled. That is his signature achievement and it is like a millstone around his neck. In the end, it will sink his presidential ambitions once and for all in 2013. Thank God.
Certain facts have changed since the last general election. For one, it is not a simple matter to craft a coalition after an election. Agreements must be filed with the Registrar of Political Parties well in advance if allies wish to share executive power. One of them must also abandon his party. Any post-election coalition can only work in the National Assembly. Recent talk of sharing the positions of Speaker, Majority Party Leader and Cabinet sots is only two-thirds possible; and that two-thirds will require the active acquiescence of the voters of Kenya. Not one presidential candidate can promise that any alliance he enters into will produce a majority in the National Assembly or Senate, control a majority of the county governments, or have the numbers to ram through a slate of Cabinet nominees.
Mr Musyoka must have realised that the manner he has been treated by his erstwhile allies is reminiscent of the manner he alleges he was treated by Raila Odinga and his allies on 2007; he was not going to be given the presidential nomination because of his seniority or his present position or the fact that of the three he is the only one not facing an international crimes indictment at the International Criminal Court. He must also have realised that he is being treated with contempt. Everyone is wooing everyone else because it is presumed that the other has the capacity to bring their ethnic blocs to the ballot as one group. In the eyes of Messrs Kenyatta and Ruto, Mr Musyoka is incapable of uniting the Akamba behind him; the Ukambani vote is split between Mr Musyoka and Charity Ngilu, with the John Harun Mwau factor yet to be considered. The two realise that Musalia Mudavadi commands a greater relative share of the Luhya vote compared to Mr Musyoka; this explains why he is constantly being linked to the Uhuru or Ruto camps and, strangely, not the Kalonzo camp.
Mr Musyoka has very little to show for nearly 30 years in the National Assembly and five years as vice-president. There are no signature achievements to his name. Even the lacklustre Mwai Kibaki managed to hold on to seniority in the opposition for a decade before finally taking the presidency in 2002. Raila Odinga is identified with the Second Liberation Movement. William Ruto has managed to supplant Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi as the doyen of the Rift Valley. Uhuru Kenyatta is Central Kenya's favourite son as Musalia Mudavadi is Western Kenya's. Mr Musyoka cannot even claim universal love from the peoples of Ukambani. No roads or dams or hospitals or schools or any public project is associated with him. Even in his signature achievement of the Somali peace process or the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement he has to share the limelight with President Moi and Gen Lazaro Sumbeiywo.He is, however, remembered for his steadfast loyalty to Moi and the Nyayoism that brought him to political prominence. He may have been more suave compared to Shariff Nassir and JJ Kamotho, but in his unswerving loyalty to an iniquitous system, he was unparallelled. That is his signature achievement and it is like a millstone around his neck. In the end, it will sink his presidential ambitions once and for all in 2013. Thank God.
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