Saturday, November 10, 2012

The Right Carrot.

Raila Odinga is still looking for the right carrot to offer William Ruto in his quest to succeed Mwai Kibaki. In recent days he has reiterated his desire to try Messrs Ruto and Kenyatta locally for the offences they allegedly committed in 2007 and 2008. Mr Ruto has rejected that offer. What is striking is that received wisdom has it that Mr Odinga is determined to ensure that the indictments against the two stick and that they are convicted and removed from the political arena once and for all. This flies in the face of the evidence.

Since the Grand Coalition was formed, Mr Odinga and the President have worked hand in hand to ensure that the long reach of the International Criminal Court does not extend to Kenya. In this they have been thwarted by the allies of Messrs Ruto and Kenyatta. Even in the face of this organised opposition, the two have attempted at various times to ensure that the matter is sent back to Kenya. IN this too they have been thwarted. It is disingenuous of Messrs Ruto and Kenyatta to claim that they are at The Hague because of the machinations of the Prime Minister without accusing the President too.

The ICC indictments do not seem to have dimmed their political ambitions though, nor do they seem to have been slowed down politically. Kenyans have not forgotten the rhetoric of the 2007 campaigns; incumbent and challengers flung enough mud to make a sty full of pigs very happy. None will forget that in the aftermath of the elections, the ODM unity was beyond doubt as was the PNU unity. It is only after the protracted negotiations failed to secure outright advantage of one side over the other that the true colours of the players was revealed. We may never know the full facts of the negotiations, but if half of what the likes of Miguna Miguna claim is true, then Mr Ruto's ambition may have gotten the better of his loyalty to the man he saw selling ODM down the river.

Raila Odinga has demonstrated that he takes after Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi for strategic vision and planning. It took him close to a decade to destroy KANU as a political force. It took him three years to destroy Mwai Kibaki's coalition; the President secured re-election in 2007 in part because of the Incumbency Factor as well as being the man in charge of the instruments of power. If Mr Odinga fails to succeed to the presidency this time round, it will not be for want of trying, planning or scheming. It is therefore, not surprising that despite what Mr Ruto or his allies have done over the past two years, he is determined to recreate what was a winning combination. No one will take the presidency without a significant chunk of the Rift Valley vote and this vote is controlled substantially by William Ruto. Mr Odinga will swallow shit if it means he and Mr Ruto are on the same page, or same ballot. All he needs is the right carrot to offer Mr Ruto.

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