ODM
is slowly being reduced to a Luo outfit with the indefatigable,
never-say-die Agwambo as its standard-bearer. Meanwhile, Musalia
Mudavadi's UDF and Uhuru Kenyatta's TNA are busily poaching sitting MPs
from the Orange Party. William Ruto took a chunk out of the party when
he decamped, finally, to the URP. It is the professional set-up of TNA
and Uhuru Kenyatta's operation that must surely give the Prime Minister
sleepless nights in his ambition to succeed Mwai Kibaki, come March
2013. Mr Kenyatta is a powerful orator. Having sen classic newsreels of
his father, i is hard not to compare the style that he is adopting all
his own, especially with the easy-to-get-along mien he has adopted. In
2013, he is the man to watch.
Since 2007/08, it has been all about Raila Odinga. That honeymoon is over. This is the time to set them against each other and measure their relative strengths and weaknesses. Mr Odinga is undoubtedly the champion of Kenya's Second Liberation, but he has squandered any political goodwill he may have enjoyed by the company he has kept. He wasted two years keeping the verbal diarrhoea-prone Miguna Miguna. He treated William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi rather shabbily. Now it seems that even the loud Rachel Shebesh and the Bishop-Politician Margaret Wanjiru are jumping ship in his hour of need. In this so-called political transfer season, ODM stands to lose the largest chunk of MPs all to the benefit of TNA, UDF and URP. It seems strange that Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper doesn't seem to be attracting any defectors. No one, it seems, is willing to hitch their wagon to that demon-seed of a political party.
Since his indictment by the ICC, Mr Kenyatta has attempted to craft a personal narrative that brings him closer to succeeding the President. It does not hurt that he has a political pedigree to rival Raila Odinga's. As does Musalia Mudavadi. The dark horses are Mr Ruto and the no-hoppers attempting the impossible like Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Raphael Tuju, Charity Ngilu and Mutava Musyimi. Even the polls show that the two-horse race that Raila Odinga keeps praying for will be between him and Mr Kenyatta. The polls consistently show Mr Odinga in a run-off with Mr Kenyatta. Given the givens, the also-rans may choose to back Mr Uhuru against the PM just because they do not like the PM and Mr Kenyatta has not treated them with disdain or highhandedly. Mr Kenyatta may not have succeeded in wriggling out of the ICC hook, but he has largely painted the matter as a political witch-hunt by the PM and it seems at least 29% of the likely voters agree with him. They can't all be from the Mount Kenya region, can they?
Mr Odinga has attempted to woo away Mt Kenya MPs to ODM or into an alliance with ODM without much to show for it save for the rebellious Gitobu Imanyara. His attempts have the whiff of desperation while Uhuru Kenyatta seems to have the momentum. However, 150 days is a lifetime in Kenyan politics and Mr Odinga is cannier and more strategic than some have given him credit for. It remains to be seen whether TNA will survive the presence of the likes of Mike Sonko before the denouement in 2013. Mr Odinga still enjoys popularity at the Coast, parts of the South Rift, the whole of Luo Nyanza, parts of Western and he is a serious contender in North Eastern and Nairobi. It will be interesting to see whether he can reclaim the ant-Establishment sheen he enjoyed in the hey-days of the 2007 campaigns. If he does not rekindle his moxie, Mr Kenyatta may end up keeping him off the grounds of State House for good.
Since 2007/08, it has been all about Raila Odinga. That honeymoon is over. This is the time to set them against each other and measure their relative strengths and weaknesses. Mr Odinga is undoubtedly the champion of Kenya's Second Liberation, but he has squandered any political goodwill he may have enjoyed by the company he has kept. He wasted two years keeping the verbal diarrhoea-prone Miguna Miguna. He treated William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi rather shabbily. Now it seems that even the loud Rachel Shebesh and the Bishop-Politician Margaret Wanjiru are jumping ship in his hour of need. In this so-called political transfer season, ODM stands to lose the largest chunk of MPs all to the benefit of TNA, UDF and URP. It seems strange that Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper doesn't seem to be attracting any defectors. No one, it seems, is willing to hitch their wagon to that demon-seed of a political party.
Since his indictment by the ICC, Mr Kenyatta has attempted to craft a personal narrative that brings him closer to succeeding the President. It does not hurt that he has a political pedigree to rival Raila Odinga's. As does Musalia Mudavadi. The dark horses are Mr Ruto and the no-hoppers attempting the impossible like Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Raphael Tuju, Charity Ngilu and Mutava Musyimi. Even the polls show that the two-horse race that Raila Odinga keeps praying for will be between him and Mr Kenyatta. The polls consistently show Mr Odinga in a run-off with Mr Kenyatta. Given the givens, the also-rans may choose to back Mr Uhuru against the PM just because they do not like the PM and Mr Kenyatta has not treated them with disdain or highhandedly. Mr Kenyatta may not have succeeded in wriggling out of the ICC hook, but he has largely painted the matter as a political witch-hunt by the PM and it seems at least 29% of the likely voters agree with him. They can't all be from the Mount Kenya region, can they?
Mr Odinga has attempted to woo away Mt Kenya MPs to ODM or into an alliance with ODM without much to show for it save for the rebellious Gitobu Imanyara. His attempts have the whiff of desperation while Uhuru Kenyatta seems to have the momentum. However, 150 days is a lifetime in Kenyan politics and Mr Odinga is cannier and more strategic than some have given him credit for. It remains to be seen whether TNA will survive the presence of the likes of Mike Sonko before the denouement in 2013. Mr Odinga still enjoys popularity at the Coast, parts of the South Rift, the whole of Luo Nyanza, parts of Western and he is a serious contender in North Eastern and Nairobi. It will be interesting to see whether he can reclaim the ant-Establishment sheen he enjoyed in the hey-days of the 2007 campaigns. If he does not rekindle his moxie, Mr Kenyatta may end up keeping him off the grounds of State House for good.
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