Thursday, October 18, 2012

Debates won't move the needle on substantive discussion

Watching Barack Obama and Mitt Romney go at each other in their Town Hall Debate, one gets the sense that even when the Other Side is bereft of ideas, it has done its homework on the ideas it does have. President Obama is determined to be re-elected in November; Mr Romney is equally determined to ensure that he is a One Term President. In pursuing their goals, the two men, and their campaign teams, have spent the better part of a year preparing the candidates to face each other in a series of debates about their policies and, yes, their ideologies. In the tail-end of an economic recession that has wiped out a significant portion of global wealth, the ideas and ideologies espoused by the candidates offer a glimpse into the future each envisions not only for the United States, but for the world too. This is not the picture that emerges from the political campaigns of Kenya's presidential campaigns.

The past year alone has given rise to such intractable problems that it seems that our entitled political class cannot be trusted to solve them. Perennial problems continue to loom over the nation from drought and famine to road fatalities and preventable disasters. But in three areas, the government has failed: security, fiscal policy and political stability. Let us take security first. In the past three months alone, Mwai Kibaki's government has had to deploy increasing numbers of security officers to address a civil emergency in the Tana Delta and at the Coast Province generally. In the first instance, it seems that no intelligence was shared regarding the unrest that was brewing in the Tana Delta and public pronouncements by spokesmen of the security establishment mischaracterised the violence as a contest between pastoral and agrarian communities for access to pasture and water resources. Keener analysts have pointed out that the pastoral Orma and the agrarian Pokomo have lived peaceably with each other for decades and that they have never clashed using the sophisticated weapons and tactics employed in this round of bloodletting. The allegation that the violence in the Tana Delta was fomented in order to distract the security establishment from goings-on in other parts of the country are reinforced by the "spontaneous" eruption of violence in the other side of the country in Kisumu between political "gangs". The violence in Kisumu erupted spontaneously and just as spontaneously it fizzled out. No credible explanation has been advanced for either the violence in the Tana Delta or in Kisumu.

Second, the government's fiscal policies seem to have been skewed in favour of a pampered elite. Again, in the past three months strikes and threatened strikes by doctors, teachers, lecturers and nurses have almost brought the economy to its knees. Indeed, in some parts of the country the economy was crippled when teachers did not spend as they usually did. Many small businessmen suffered great losses. It was the same case with the doctors' strike. In addition to the deaths that resulted from the strike, the doctors' spending was suspended during the three weeks they were on strike and this crippled the economies of many rural communities. It was therefore, strange to listen to the Minister for Medical Services and his Education and Finance counterparts arguing that the government could not raise the revenue to settle the demands of the striking doctors and teachers while the National Assembly was preparing to raid the national treasury to inflate their already swollen remuneration packages. Despite Mwai Kibaki's threatened veto, the likes of Adan Keynan and Rachel Shebesh promise that the National Assembly will rally around this selfish goal and they will override the presidential veto and get their ten-million shilling "gratuity" for a job well done. To date, the mandarins at The Treasury have been unable to explain what Kenya's true fiscal position is, what challenges we face either in the short or medium term, and what devolution is going to cost the nation in the long term.

Finally, regarding political stability the presumption that all is well is belied by the nature of the statements being made by presidential candidates. Kenyans are still bitterly divided regardless of the efforts of the so-called Agenda 4 Commissions. The Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, appointed to look into historical injustices, was hamstrung from the start with the appointment of Bethwel Kiplangat as its chairperson. A whole year was wasted as various parties attempted, unsuccessfully, to oust him from the Commission. Even when members of the Commission resigned, including the Vice-chairperson, or threatened to resign, he stayed put. No one seriously believes that the Commission's report will be received as the South African truth commission's report was received. One suspects that despite expected sensational revelations and recommendations in the report, Kenyans will simply roll their eyes and carry on as before. Disappointment in the TJRC pales in comparison to the disappointment in the National Cohesion and Integration Commission, the one commission that was expected to carry forward the task of politically integrating the country. It has consumed vast resources while organising peace committees and cohesion seminars and workshops. Its commissioners have grown fatter and fatter as Kenyans have grown more suspicious of the intentions of persons not from their own ethnic communities. Inter-ethnic integration or cohesion remains a pipe-dream after the waste of vast national resources. Its report, too, is set to be derided as another national white elephant.

In the context of a presidential campaign, these are just three of the issues of national importance that continue to be ignored in favour of the question of whether William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta should stand for the presidency despite their ICC indictments, or whether Raila Odinga is a "true" reformer because of his "sacrifices" made during the Second Liberation. Kenyans are similarly obsessed with the question of the "integrity" of the presidential candidates and whether there is, among them, one who has remained "untainted" despite participation in the murky world of Kenyan politics. We know almost nothing of how, for example, William Ruto or Raila Odinga will attain 10% "economic growth" after their election or how Martha Karua or Charity Ngilu will ensure that gender-based discrimination is eliminated in the five years of their presidential terms. What we know is that all the candidates tell us that they have "plans" which will be detailed in their "manifestos" and which have received the approval of the "party members". What is true, though, and what they tell us are two different things. So long as we continue to die at the hands of terrorists and bandits, or so long as our hard-earned wealth is squandered to pamper our elected representatives, or so long as we continue to be held hostage to the superiority complexes of our ethnic kingpins, we may as well scuttle the presidential debates and spend that money on even more divisive television adverts. At least that way we will provide jobs for a few dozen men and women in the media industry.

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