Fate and Politics

It is still too early to predict the demise of the UhuRuto political marriage. It is the loud voices of the United Republican Party that create the impression of a rift between the President and the Deputy President. One would be mistaken to take the bonhomie between the two at face value; they are after all, politicians with an eye in the Big Picture. President Kenyatta intends to serve two terms; William Ruto intends to succeed him after the second general election and serve two terms too. Whether their dreams comes to pass will depend almost entirely on whether they can manage the fallout from the ICC trials of the tow with pragmatism.

Those looking at the theatrics surrounding the disputes over public appointments and tenders are looking in the wrong place. It is the lack of legs in the allegations that the President's "people" are responsible for the trial of the Deputy President that speaks volumes. If Mr Ruto truly thought that the President was somewhat behind his trial, the political marriage between the two would today be in the divorce courts being prosecuted with vicious venom. Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta both served, in varying capacities, in the Kibaki administration, an administration whose ham-fisted handling of the post-election violence led to the ICC investigation, indictments, trial and imminent trial. It is the men and women who served in the Kibaki government who are responsible for the mess that the PEV became; if they had not underestimated the doggedness of the ICC prosecutor and the Kenyan civil society industry, Messrs Kenyatta and Ruto would not be standing trial today and the PEV cases would be dying the expected deaths of a thousand cuts in the still-being-reformed Judiciary.

The threat of the ICC to the UhuRuto alliance should not be underestimated. It must be taken seriously. How it is resolved will make or break UhuRuto. It is in its resolution that Kenyans will be able to determine whether the principle partners are truly in it for the long haul or not. The challenge is in understanding whether the one or the other is patient enough to achieve the alliance's objectives.

Mr Ruto is the more obviously ambitious of the two, though whether the reality speaks to this is another matter. His rise in national politics since 1992 has been spectacular but no less than that of Raila Odinga or Kalonzo Musyoka. It is the apparent pragmatism in his character that makes him the man to watch. When it was in his interests he dumped Moi (2002), Kenyatta (2003) and Odinga (2010). The alliances he made cemented his primacy among the politicians of the Rift Valley, especially the North Rift. He has risen in both power and wealth in a relatively short time and he has achieved key positions because he has not been held back by fickle concepts such as absolute loyalty.

Mr Kenyatta's rise is no less impressive. From a mere name name in 1998, he is now the Head of State and Commander-in-Chief. He has had a less stellar rise than his deputy. But it is how he has managed to rise so far and so fast that we must draw lessons. He comes to the political arena with advantages that many would kill for: instant name-recognition, great wealth, sub-conscious acceptance from almost all Kenyans and an intelligence that is constantly underestimated by one and all. He has managed to control his press with a ruthlessness and discipline that speaks volumes about his long-term plans. It helps considerably that he has a knack for connecting with the man on the street and the still-at-sea feeling that wafts around the opposition.

It is obvious that the fate of the alliance is in the hands of the President. He  must seize the opportunity to re-shape the alliance as he requires. If he allows the alliance to be seen as a marriage of bickering partners, he may never regain the momentum to keep the presidency at the next general election. Towards this end, annoying pin pricks like the demands for "balance" in public appointments and "value-for-money" in big-ticket public procurement must be quashed. He cannot allow annoyances such as Alfred Keter to become thorns in his side. He must do what Moi and his late father did; smash them without appearing to smash them. He has the skills and intelligence to do so. It is just a question of whether he will or not.