The
single most important item on the president's in-tray come March fifth,
if there is no run off and the IEBC doesn't dither, is youth
employment. Mwai Kibaki's two terms were a failure on the unemployment
front; youth unemployment, according to figures from the National Bureau
of Statistics, stands as high as 40%. It might be higher if one takes
into account the increasing numbers of youthful Kenyans graduating from
our universities and technical colleges. Mwai Kibaki, in 2007, promised
to create half-a-million jobs annually. As did ODM's Raila Odinga. Even
today, that dream is being kept alive by both the leading coalitions,
CORD and Jubilee.
The new president faces grave challenges regarding the employment of Kenya's youth. The economic policies of the last ten years have ensured that the environment has been receptive to new players in diverse industries, but this has not translated into increased employment. Rather the same numbers of Kenyans have had to work sometimes three times as hard. In other words, the policies have brought about greater efficiency in economic productivity over the decade, such that the Kenya Revenue Authority has every year set for itself ambitious targets in revenue collection and, more often than not, met them. The most startling result of these efficiencies has been the explosion in the collection of income tax as well as the increased level of compliance in revenue remittance by the private sector. However, these gains on the revenue front continue to be overshadowed by the stagnation in youth employment.
One of the more unfortunate outcomes of unemployment, especially among the youth, has been an increase in incidences of crime, especially violent crime. Since Mwai Kibaki was first sworn in as President in 2002, more and more Kenyans have become victims of one form of crime or the other. The same period has seen a rise in the number of organised criminal gangs operating in all of Kenya's major towns, especially Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru and Kisumu. Mr Kibaki's internal security ministers, John Michuki and Chris Murungaru, attempted to address this problem using draconian means and failed. The end-result, especially of the late Mr Michuki's violent assault on gangs such as the Mungiki, was the labelling of the government as one prone to violate the fundamental rights of criminal suspects, many of whom were in the age group of 25 years to 35 years.
Kenya is at a delicate stage. Mwai Kibaki realises this and he has been laying the ground work to ensure that more young Kenyans have the necessary skills to survive in an increasingly competitive job market. His decision to elevate many middle-cadre colleges to full universities is aimed at addressing the short fall that the private sector claims exists in relevant skills. However, it is his decision to offer free basic education that will set the stage for a large cohort of the young making it to Kenya's increasing numbers of universities. But this is just part of the complex economic environment.
The next president must pick up from where Mr Kibaki leaves off. It is in the interests of the nation that the next president concentrates in making the private sector as vibrant as the public sector has been over the last decade. Job growth cannot come on the back of a ballooning public sector; that is a recipe for chaos. The public sector cannot consume all national revenue to the total exclusion of other sectors. Mr Kibaki attempted to balance public sector investment by investing heavily in infrastructure development; but all this did was to help a few companies profit and not the entire private sector. Several judgments by Kenya's reforming Judiciary have set things back a tad. Ever since the labour law of Kenya was revised, the private sector has been under siege and the Judiciary has not helped matters by seeming to favour the rights of the employed rather than those of the employers. The new President must attempt to re-balance the equation without taking away the rights that workers have gained under Mr Kibaki's watch. That is the challenging economic environment that the new president will find himself (or herself) in after the general election.
The main aim of the new president must not only be to reassure the private sector that he understands the plight the find themselves in as a consequence of the decisions made by the Judiciary, but that public investment shall focus more on creating an enabling environment for ever greater investment by the private sector in areas such as manufacturing. Vision 2030 is a beautiful blue-print; to achieve its objectives, the president must ensure that not only do the youth of Kenya have the required skills to contribute to their achievement, but that the private sector is incentivised to invest larger sums to its noble goals. If he can achieve positive job growth for the youth of Kenya, he will have made greater strides into not only turning Kenya into a middle-income economy, but also in setting the nation on a path to greater political stability.
The new president faces grave challenges regarding the employment of Kenya's youth. The economic policies of the last ten years have ensured that the environment has been receptive to new players in diverse industries, but this has not translated into increased employment. Rather the same numbers of Kenyans have had to work sometimes three times as hard. In other words, the policies have brought about greater efficiency in economic productivity over the decade, such that the Kenya Revenue Authority has every year set for itself ambitious targets in revenue collection and, more often than not, met them. The most startling result of these efficiencies has been the explosion in the collection of income tax as well as the increased level of compliance in revenue remittance by the private sector. However, these gains on the revenue front continue to be overshadowed by the stagnation in youth employment.
One of the more unfortunate outcomes of unemployment, especially among the youth, has been an increase in incidences of crime, especially violent crime. Since Mwai Kibaki was first sworn in as President in 2002, more and more Kenyans have become victims of one form of crime or the other. The same period has seen a rise in the number of organised criminal gangs operating in all of Kenya's major towns, especially Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru and Kisumu. Mr Kibaki's internal security ministers, John Michuki and Chris Murungaru, attempted to address this problem using draconian means and failed. The end-result, especially of the late Mr Michuki's violent assault on gangs such as the Mungiki, was the labelling of the government as one prone to violate the fundamental rights of criminal suspects, many of whom were in the age group of 25 years to 35 years.
Kenya is at a delicate stage. Mwai Kibaki realises this and he has been laying the ground work to ensure that more young Kenyans have the necessary skills to survive in an increasingly competitive job market. His decision to elevate many middle-cadre colleges to full universities is aimed at addressing the short fall that the private sector claims exists in relevant skills. However, it is his decision to offer free basic education that will set the stage for a large cohort of the young making it to Kenya's increasing numbers of universities. But this is just part of the complex economic environment.
The next president must pick up from where Mr Kibaki leaves off. It is in the interests of the nation that the next president concentrates in making the private sector as vibrant as the public sector has been over the last decade. Job growth cannot come on the back of a ballooning public sector; that is a recipe for chaos. The public sector cannot consume all national revenue to the total exclusion of other sectors. Mr Kibaki attempted to balance public sector investment by investing heavily in infrastructure development; but all this did was to help a few companies profit and not the entire private sector. Several judgments by Kenya's reforming Judiciary have set things back a tad. Ever since the labour law of Kenya was revised, the private sector has been under siege and the Judiciary has not helped matters by seeming to favour the rights of the employed rather than those of the employers. The new President must attempt to re-balance the equation without taking away the rights that workers have gained under Mr Kibaki's watch. That is the challenging economic environment that the new president will find himself (or herself) in after the general election.
The main aim of the new president must not only be to reassure the private sector that he understands the plight the find themselves in as a consequence of the decisions made by the Judiciary, but that public investment shall focus more on creating an enabling environment for ever greater investment by the private sector in areas such as manufacturing. Vision 2030 is a beautiful blue-print; to achieve its objectives, the president must ensure that not only do the youth of Kenya have the required skills to contribute to their achievement, but that the private sector is incentivised to invest larger sums to its noble goals. If he can achieve positive job growth for the youth of Kenya, he will have made greater strides into not only turning Kenya into a middle-income economy, but also in setting the nation on a path to greater political stability.
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