Thursday, January 03, 2013

Reading the 2013 tea-leaves.

It is a fraught exercise to predict the future in Kenya; even the Waganga from Tanzania keep off from such activities. Therefore, we must look at past behaviour to attempt a look to future acts. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, Jubilee's principal actors, have their hands full in the coming year. Not only must they trounce CORD and all other alliances/coalitions at the hustings in March, they must also ensure that should their trials at The Hague proceed, they emerge victorious. In 2013, it is almost certain that their acolytes will attempt to link their impending trials with the general election, exhorting Kenyans to elect them as a rejection of the charges that have been preferred against them by the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court.

Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka have their work cut out for them in attempting to persuade millions of Kenyans that their alliance is not merely an alliance of convenience but a serious meeting of the minds designed to offer Kenyans a fresh alternative to the tired old politics of years past. The two have had a poisonous relationship for decades. Mr Musyoka, the Vice-President, has been the blue-eyed boy of the Moi regime, playing the KANU game better than many and surviving in that snake-pit against all odds. If it wasn't for Mr Moi's last-minute decision to elevate Uhuru Kenyatta to the senior-most, first-among-equals position n 2002, Mr Musyoka would have been well-placed to take over after the Nyayo Era. In 2002 and 2005 he was forced into a forced alliance with Raila Odinga in order to advance his interests. IN 2007, he betrayed the Orange Movement flock to pursue his own presidential ambitions, costing Raila Odinga the Big Prize and leading to a difficult co-existence since then. How the two will swing the argument that they are different, especially after inviting the likes of Cyrus Jirongo into their alliance, remains to be seen.

Pambazuka's Peter Kenneth and Raphael Tuju have an easier time; theirs may turn pout to be the best alternative to CORD and Jubilee. Mr Kenneth is the more impressive of the two. His stewardship of the Gatanga CDF kitty has been a model of effectiveness and probity. Not many current presidential candidates can boast a CDF record as his. Neither, apparently can any one do the same against Mr Tuju; his only misfortune was losing his seat in 2007 by going against the ODM wave in Luo Nyanza. By all accounts, his development record in Rarieda was quite impressive. Perhaps he would have done more with five more years. Both are eloquent and personable; both, sadly, lack the charisma and public profiles of Uhuru Kenyatta or Raila Odinga. Despite their denials, as with Jubilee's Kalenjin/Kikuyu axis, Mr Tuju's and Mr Kenneth's is a Luo/Kikuyu alliance. It is unfortunate that they are not the popular politicians that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga are, otherwise they would give CORD and Jubilee a run for their money. But yet, if Kenyans decide to listen to their ideas, rather than be impressed by their charisma, they may upset the applecart on March 4th.

Martha Karua is captaining a listing ship. She has been abandoned by the erstwhile voluble Danson Mungatana who has hitched his wagon to the Jubilee train. She seems not have any other popular acolyte to act as a foil to her intensity. Her hard-eyed approach to politics - a winner-takes-all attitude that grates - has alienated those who would otherwise find her an attractive alternative to the CORD, Jubilee or Pambazuka alliances. The likes of Asman Kamama will simply not cut it in the cut and thrust of 21st Century Kenya presidential campaigning. At best, she will be a footnote in the annals of presidential politics. At worst, she'll be forgotten, even though it was her strategic mind that ensured that the constitutional review process was safeguarded from sabotage by her colleagues in the National Assembly.

But it is Charity Ngilu's continued spiral into political irrelevance that will keep us staring at the TV. Her rash decision to set sail in the Jubilee boat will come back to bite her. She has jettisoned her presidential ambitions for a senatorial run in Kitui, coming up against the astute, though underrated, David Musila. Mr Musila has created a formidable team on the ground in his bid to be Kitui's senator, and Mrs Ngilu is coming to the game a bit late in the day. Whether she overhaul Mr Musila will depend entirely on whether Uhuru and Ruto trust her sufficiently to give her a boost when she needs it most. But given how they have treated Musalia Mudavadi, and how Mr Ruto is handling Linah Jebii Kilimo, I would not bet on Mrs Ngilu triumphing in her decision to go for the Kitui senate seat.

Musalia Mudavadi and Eugene Wamalwa are set to be the jokers in the 2013 campaigns. Mr Wamalwa, the Justice Minister, has had a roller-coaster ride over the past year. Starting out with Jimmi Kibaki's Simama Kenya, he briefly flirted with Maina Njenga (until tear gas put paid to that arrangement), had a long dalliance with the Gang of Seven (where he got his Justice docket from), attempted a marriage with Pambazuka before he ended up in the Musalia Mudavadi bear-hug with Gideon Moi's and Nick Salat's KANU hovering in the shadows with Baba Moi's blessings. Neither will be able to shake the suspicion that they are a project, whether Mwai Kibaki's or President Moi's. They are destined to make up the numbers of the also-rans that includes James Ole Kiyiapi and Bifwoli Wakoli, should he decide to throw his hat in the presidential ring.

It is the Nairobi City governor's race that will attract the most attention in down ticket races. In ODM/CORD, it is a battle between Bishop Margaret Wanjiru and former Mumias Sugar head-honcho Dr Evans Kidero. In TNA/Jubilee, it seems that the nomination is Ferdinand Waititu's to lose. Odds are that the contest will be between Mr Waititu and Bishop Wanjiru, both having demonstrated that they are not afraid to play hardball when need be. Mombasa and Kisumu do not seem to have attracted the same level of fevered attention as Nairobi. Yet. Things could change, but Kisumu seems to be a safe ODM bastion while Mombasa, because of the MRC threat, remains an unknown quantity.

No one seems to expect the same level of violence as 2007, but given the stakes in 2013, no one is holding their breath. Mwai Kibaki, determined to secure his legacy, has prepared for all security-related eventualities. A new Inspector-General of the Police has been appointed. His deputies await presidential appointment. The election is in a convenient month. The IEBC enjoys the confidence of the people. All the same, if things go tits up, no one believes that things could be salvaged as they were under the aegis of Kofi Annan and the Panel of Eminent African Personalities in 2008. We pray, and we hope.

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