The Wild Card

Eugene Wamalwa continues to be underestimated. If the moxie his late elder brother demonstrated is anything to go by, with Eugene, still waters will run deep. A first time Member of Parliament, inheriting the late Kijana Wamalwa's Saboti seat on a PNU ticket, rather than the late Kijana's FORD-K. He has managed to pull the wool over everyone's eyes and now that he has been elevated to the Cabinet as the justice minister, it remains to be seen whether he will be the team-player Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto expect him to be. Received wisdom has it that he is merely a spanner boy, given the justice docket to ensure that whatever schemes there are underway to rescue the two fellow presidential candidates he will ensure that they are accomplished. It is presumed that Mr Wamalwa will loyally ensure the elevation of either Mr Kenyatta or Mr Ruto, though Mr Kenyatta than Mr Ruto, to the presidency by ensuring that the long arm of the ICC is stayed sufficiently long enough to guarantee that outcome. It is also presumed that Mr Wamalwa knows he does not have a shot at the presidency and therefore, he will be comfortable ensuring Mr Kenyatta's ascendancy for some post-election back-scratching of some sort.

The other narrative goes that Mr Kenyatta ensured Eugene's elevation is a signal to Musalia Mudavadi to get with the programme or be left by the wayside as happened in 2003. Then, Mr Mudavadi was Mr Kenyatta's running mate, refusing to dump KANU in favour of NARC and not just losing the election, but his seat which he had held since he inherited his late father's seat in 1989. Despite Mr Mudavadi's repeated protestations that he is not about to dump ODM, it is widely believed that should there be doubt as to the integrity of the presidential nominations in ODM, he will quickly find his way into the open arms of the Gang of Seven as their compromise candidate. These presumptions hing on one fundamental assumption - that Eugene will blithely sit by as Mudavadi is given a chance at the brass ring of the Kenyan presidency.

No one gets into politics to play second fiddle. No one declares an interest in the presidency using logic or rational decision-making faculties. Regardless of his chances at the hustings, it is entirely possible that Eugene will not so easily let go of the opportunity to stand for the presidency simply because it is expected of him by his partners in the Gang of Seven. And if the two main players in the G7 are flirting with the notion of a Mudavadi compromise presidency, it is entirely possible that Eugene may baulk at the idea that while his ethnic community is larger than Mudavadi's that he should be denied the chance to prove that he is the better-equipped candidate. Politicians have famoulsy large egos and Eugene's has now been bolstered by his elevation to the powerful justice docket. Power tends to corrupt.

The presumption that Eugene is just the spanner boy to Uhuru Kenyatta's ambitions is set to be tested in the next few months. The ICC has constituted a Trial Chamber to try the Kenya cases. The panel of lawyers appointed by the Attorney-General returned a verdict that there was no way out of complying with the ICC with respect to the Kenya cases. Mutula Kilonzo, the former justice minister, was very vocal that not only will the trials proceed but that Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto should not put themselves forward for the presidency until the trials are concluded. In other words, they should wait for 2017. Even the alleged reticence of the Chief Justice regarding the trials of Kenyans in a foreign court has been added into the mix, presuming that when a challenge to the ICC process finally finds its way to the courts, any appeal that finds its way to the Supreme Court will be handled in a manner designed to keep the Kenyan suspects in Kenya. The only wild card is Eugene Ludovic Wamalwa.

President Mwai Kibaki and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta must be very confident of Eugene Wamalwa's loyalty to hand the justice docket to him. They must be sure that Mr Wamalwa will play according to their playbook and ensure that Mr Kenyatta's path to the presidency is unimpeded. If they are wrong about Mr Wamalwa's loyalty, there will be hell to pay down the road. Mr Wamalwa could use his newly acquired power to ensure that not only does Kenya comply fully with all the requests of the ICC but that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto do not see the light of day ever again by ensuring that all evidence linking them to the crimes they are accused of is supplied to the ICC prosecutor. Mr Wamalwa is a presidential contender. His loyalty must supersede his desire to be president. If it does not, Mr Kibaki and Mr Kenyatta may be compelled to conduct another a re-shuffle and shove Eugene out of the very door that they shoved Mutula out out of. These are uncharted waters.