Who will blink first?

Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and Uhuru Kenyatta are acting coy all of a sudden, and it has nothing to do with the fact that their two-year long political romance is suffering from fatigue and over-familiarity. During the official launch of the PNU Alliance (party?), Mr Musyoka, the Vice-President, and Mr Kenyatta, the Deputy Prime Minister, let it be known that while their desire of denying Prime Minister Raila Odinga the ultimate political prize in Kenya remained undimmed, they were and remained the heads of their respective political parties and that they would "work together as friends" to ensure that the policies and objectives of the PNU Alliance were realised. This attack of coyness reflects the inherent mistrust with which they view each others' and, by extension, the PNU Alliance's long-term goals. It is slowly dawning on them that the provisions of the Constitution, the Elections Act (2011) and the Political Parties Act (2011), as well as the shifting sands of Kenya's political landscape, give little scope for errors, especially when it comes to realising political ambitions long restrained by President Mwai Kibaki's two terms since his election as President in 2002. The political troubles of William Ruto have only complicated an already fraught situation, making it clear that the long road to the next general elections will be beset by pitfalls that may appear as if from thin air.

When Messrs Kenyatta, Musyoka and Ruto first came together under the inaptly-named KKK Alliance in 2010, the storm clouds of the ICC were yet to be seen. When Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto were indicted by the ICC Prosecutor, they may have laid the blame for their predicament on the Prime Minister, but their suspicions were of Mr Musyoka's motives in the light of their pre3dicament. Even the cheerleading squad led by Chirau Ali Mwakwere, Eugene Wamalwa and their fellow-travellers could not hide the fact that if the two were hobbled by an ICC trial, it is Mr Musyoka and Mr Odinga who stood to gain. Successive opinion polls have highlighted this fact for months now. The seeds of the destruction of the KKK and now, the PNU Alliance, were laid at that moment. So it comes as no surprise that the two, and Prof George Saitoti, the chairman of PNU, are busily building up their parties; they cannot take the risk that their putative alliance will not survive the Kenyan political turbulence to come and so they are hedging their bets in the hope that when the storm passes, they will be the last men standing and shall reap where the Alliance will have sown.

Kiraitu Murungi, he of the undisciplined utterances, has attempted to paint a picture of fraternal bonhomie despite the fact that the bonhomie is all talk and no trousers. Surrounded as he is by the likes of Johnstone Muthama and Ephraim Maina, Mr Murungi must constantly keep an eye out for the Brutus in his circle. The Bus that Mr Murungi is attempting to fill with like-minded passengers may never leave the station if the honoured passengers choose their own modes of political transport. The concept of alliances and coalitions that Mr Murungi and his allies in Parliament managed to entrench in the Elections Act and the Political Parties Act may not be the stick that they think it will be to whack Mr Odinga with at the next general elections, whenever they will be held. These provisions may turn out to be the albatross around their necks that brings them to political ruination. All their maneuvers hinge on the Alliance surviving through to the general elections, that despite their individual ambitions, they will rally behind one candidate whether at the first round of polling or at a run-off, if one comes to pass. Human nature, being what it is, is a fickle mistress and Messrs Kenyatta, Musyoka and Ruto may, in the end, jettison the group for themselves and take on Mr Odinga as individuals and not as part of the PNU Alliance, or its successor(s).

The judgment of the High Court in the Election Date Case may seem as a blessing to the Alliance, giving it time to put its house in order and all its ducks in a row, but it may turn out to be too good a thing to be true. If, as many Kenyans anticipate, the President and Prime Minister refuse to dissolve the coalition and the general elections are scheduled by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission some time in 2013, the politicians have at least one year to get everything in place. Further, depending on whether the ICC Pre-trial Chamber II confirms charges against Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, their campaigns may be laced with the rhetoric of victimhood and ethno-jingoism that may poison the political atmosphere. It cannot be discounted that if their charges are confirmed, they may feel that Mr Musyoka benefits at their expense and decide to go it alone. ON the other, if the charges are not confirmed, they may feel vindicated and use this to rally support behind their respective candidacies and still go it alone. Let us not forget, either, the so-called minnows. Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua and, even, Raphael Tuju, may take the opportunity of a PNU Alliance fall-out to offer the nation a principled third-party alternative that is untainted by the stink of the personal vendetta being waged by the PNU Alliance. This game is not decided yet and the extra twelve months bequeathed by the High Court will only make things more interesting.