A 47-County Ground Game

Barack Obama is setting up what is bound to be one of the most expensive and inventive campaign machineries that the USA has ever seen in order to keep the presidency he won against the Republican John McCain of Arizona in 2008. Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, he of the Wiper Democratic Movement, has called for USA-style live debates to weed out the jokers in the presidential contest. He must do more if his dream of not just winning the PNU Alliance nomination, but the presidency too, is to come true.

Many have read the opinion poll-inspired tea leaves and believe that Raila Odinga, and the Orange Democratic Movement, is the man, and the party, to beat in 2012. But, what exactly has he done to capitalise on the goodwill he and his party apparently enjoy? So far, the Prime Minister has gone out of his way to tread softly-softly, lest his opponents brand him a radical unfit to lead. However, the ODM 'grassroots' polls were largely a sham; the Mombasa County polls were nullified by the High Court and will have to be re-done. It also seems as if the PM is reaching out to William Ruto before he becomes too entrenched in UDM; Mr Ruto is yet to be declared the UDM presidential flag-bearer. Indeed, he is yet to be a formal member of the party!

What we seen afraid to discuss is the fact that the various combinations and permutations, alliances and groupings being assembled to challenge Raila Odinga and ODM are principally tribal alliances, meant to isolate the Luo candidate from the national scene and ensure that he, and his tribe, are locked out of the corridors of power for all eternity. When the KKK Alliance was first mooted, even Kalonzo Musyoka was smart enough to disown it without walking away from it. Now, even Gitobu Imanyara, of all people, is calling for the Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Embu Counties to remain in the Mt Kenya bloc in order to remain relevant in 2012. So why not look at the elections as a tribal numbers game and act accordingly?

The Constitution divides Kenya into 47 counties, which for better or worse, are largely tribal blocs, save for a few cosmopolitan counties like Nairobi, Mombasa, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru and Trans Nzoia, though even these enjoy at least one dominant ethnic community. A smart presidential candidate will set it up such that his party, or his alliance, has 'credible representatives' from each county, willing to give him fealty in return for some unspecified reward in the aftermath of the general election. It used to be that the president could appoint his 'loyal supporters' as Cabinet Ministers, ambassadors, heads of parastatals, or senior civil servants. That option has been removed from the table. The winning presidential candidate must control enough votes in Parliament to allow him to appoint proxies for his supporters to these positions with the assistance of Parliament.

A winning presidential candidate must also ensure that the men and women who front for him in the counties are credible enough politicians to not only win the governorships up for grabs but also the senate seats available as well as control the county assemblies by having like-minded men and women elected to them too. It will be an interesting experiment to witness where a successful presidential candidate only wins the presidency, but his party loses Parliament, and is in a minority when it comes to senate seats, governorships or county assemblies. The latter would mean that his agenda would be at the mercy not only of a potentially hostile Parliament, but a hostile devolved government too. The former would guarantee that what vision he has for the country can be attained with the minimum of rancour or divisiveness.

Debates are all well and good. As are tribal alliances. But what Kenya needs in the next 9 to 12 months is a vision greater than the cock-eyed defeat-Raila-at-all-costs scenario that Kalonzo & Co have in store for us. They must - all of them - mount a 47-county ground game that brings together competing interests with a view to fashioning a vision for this country that will address mass unemployment, a lackluster economy, an ever escalating cost of living, a soon-to-be-unpopular war in Somalia, an expansion and refurbishment of the education sector, especially secondary schools and universities, and reduces to manageable levels the decades of ethnic Balkanisation that has left the peoples of Kenya suspicious of their neighbours at every turn.