It's early days yet.

Political nomadism is not new to Kenya. Raila Odinga moved from party to party before he finally became the undisputed leader of ODM in 2005. Those deriding William Ruto's search for a berth miss the point. He is merely doing what other politicians have done for ages. Whether he finally finds a party that will accommodate his outsized presidential ambitions remains to be seen.

When Mr Ruto supplanted Daniel Toroitich arap Moi as the leader of the North Rift Valley, perhaps even of the entire Rift Valley, his position was not without peril. The Rift Valley continues to be a region where presidential campaigns are either won or lost. Given the large numbers of votes to be won or lost, it continues to exercise the minds of all presidential candidates, especially now that Mr Ruto seems to be on the backfoot. While his leadership of the Kalenjin continues to be assailed by Mr Odinga, it remains to be seen whether the three leading presidential contenders will consolidate their numbers in the Rift Valley before the next general elections. Strangely, though, none seems to have thought of the ground game necessary to persuade the various peoples of the Rift Valley that their candidatures are the tonic that the region needs to move beyond the Moi Era.

The next president needs not just a majority in Parliament, but also to control enough counties in order to realise his presidential agenda without having to constantly campaign to implement it. For this, his foot-soldiers must include credible candidates for the Senate, the Governorships, and the county assemblies. These are the men and women needed to ensure that during the campaigns he garners enough votes not just to take the presidency but also to control the legislative agenda of Parliament and the county assemblies. Therefore, the men and women the presidential candidates surround themselves with must be strong enough in their own right to be able to win elective positions as well as help deliver the votes needed to not only win outright but also to win in the event of a run-off between two candidates. Polls constantly indicate that if Raila Odinga faces Uhuru Kenyatta in a run-off, he will lose, though these polls do not show how this scenario will unfold. Mr Kenyatta for all his popularity has not demonstrated that he has a credible team supporting him in the counties nor, for that matter, has Mr Odinga.

Mr Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka have demonstrated that they are in the race not just to win the presidency but to deny Mr Odinga a taste of victory. Those who have labelled the two as traitors fail to appreciate the fact that the presidency is not a gift to be given to the deserving or undeserving, but a prize to be won or lost at the hustings. If one wants to be president, he will not be handed the prize on a silver platter but he must challenge and defeat his opponents politically, using all the tactical and strategic resources at his disposal to do so. Among these resources are allies and supporters willing to put their ambitions on hold in order to secure victory for their preferred candidate. Mr Odinga, by and large, has managed to not only hold his party together, but also keep many of his MPs on-side during his spat with Mr Ruto. Mr Ruto on the other hand, has tried to keep the North Rift politicians in his corner together as he hunts for a party to challenge Raila Odinga at the general election. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Musyoka are consolidating their holds on their respective parties, though Mr Musyoka seems without challengers while Mr Kenyatta must contend with the Gideon Moi-Nick Salat axis that is hell-bent on denying him undisputed king status at all costs.

So far, not a single political party has conformed fully to the strictures of the Political Parties Act, even after they were watered down by Parliament. This may explain why none who has decided to stand for the presidency is yet to announce whom they will choose as their Deputy Presidential candidate. Some of the minnows, like Peter Kenneth, have ruled out being running mates so the options are limited. The candidates need running mates who will help them consolidate votes in counties where they are not strong while still portraying the image of a national outlook. Therefore, it early days yet to declare with authority that there will be a run-off or that it will be between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta. More needs to be seen in order to give credence to this proposition. It is entirely possible that the next president may be elected without a run-off. It is also possible that he may yet face a hostile Parliament and barely control a majority of the counties. This race has just began.