Old wine, new skins. Pity.

The race for State House in 2012 started way before the Constitution was promulgated; it started when the Raila Odinga-led faction of Kibaki's first administration rebelled and rejected the Proposed Constitution in 2005. Since then, the country has been in a permanent political campaign and, notwithstanding the events after the 2007 elections, will continue to be in such a state until well after the 2012 general elections. It seems that Kenyans, generally, accept this state of affairs and take a morbid pleasure in participating fully in the more unsavoury aspects of their preferred candidates' campaigns.

Opinion polls continue to indicate that Raila Odinga is the man to beat in 2012, though he is yet to declare whether he will stand for the presidency. The men and woman who have declared their candidacies are determined to create the impression that they are serious contenders, primarily by issuing press statements and headlining events where they either give money for charitable causes or solicit funds for their presidential bids. None, however, has created a credible campaign machinery targetting the 47 counties and existing 210 constituencies. Other than rhetoric concerning their desire to 'reform' the institutions of governance or promises to wipe out corruption from public life, none has suggested a programme for achieving any of their lofty promises. All still seem wedded to the idea that a successful presidential campaign is still based on whether or not they receive the support of their ethnic communities and how well they can persuade members of other ethnic communities to ally with them. None has been able to dispel the image of a tribal chieftain that is crucial to their identities. In short, theirs' are campaigns of style over substance.

The middle class elite in Nairobi, as frequently reported in the media, is interested in 'issues'. The proof of this interest is in the numerous Op-Ed pieces penned by intellectuals and members of the professional classes. Whether this is the reality remains to be seen. The issues that affect Kenyans acutely revolve almost entirely around the misperforming economy, of which the Vision 2030 is the latest of a long line of strategies for reforming the economy of Kenya to ensure that everyone can afford to live as they please. Over the past 2 years, since the global recession brought about economic pain, the cost of living in Kenya has touched highs not seen since the structural adjustment programmes of the IMF and World Bank were imposed on Kenya in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Basic commodities have become exorbitantly expensive, with staples such as maize meal priced out of the reach of the working classes. If the presidential contenders have solutions for the economic problems that continue to bedevil Kenyans, they are keeping them very close to their hearts. It is as if they will keep these solutions as trump cards to be revealed only when they have been elected to the presidency. By then it may be too late.

When Bill Clinton won the election in 1991, his campaign had been predicated on the economy then. George H W Bush had failed to recognise this simple fact and when he lost, many Americans stated that it was because he had failed on the economic front. In Kenya, the economy has never played a dominant role in the election of our three presidents. Until the repeal of section 2A of our former constitution, presidential elections were foregone conclusions and after its repeal, they became a test of how well the incumbent could manipulate inter-ethnic relations to secure victory. President Moi's KANU, despite being an unpopular party managed to divide the opposition in 1992 and 1997 to prolong his rule by a further 10 years. Mwai Kibaki's second presidential victory was despite the fact that he was less popular than his main challenger. At no time since 1992 was the economy a factor in the election of wither Daniel Toroitich arap Moi or Mwai Kibaki as president. The new presidential contenders know this and it is the only reason why when their manifestos are written in 2012, none will offer realistic plans for the country, and regardless of which one of them wins, the manifesto will be jettisoned promptly. Perhaps 2012 will be different, but so far no signs of change are in the air. It is still old wine in new skins. More's the pity.