G7 delusions of grandeur

The Group of Seven (G7) is caught in a time-warp. They have simply refused to accept the fact that the manner in which the next President of the Republic of Kenya will be elected has very little to do with the vote-bank politics of the past 47 years. In their desire to prevent Raila Odinga from ascending to the highest seat in Kenya, they betray the fact that they neither have fresh ideas nor a credible plan for ensuring that one of their own becomes the president. If all they have going for them is a desire to prevent a Raila presidency, then they have lost the game before it has even began.

While President Moi may have been following in President Kenyatta's footsteps, he perfected the art of marshalling ethnic blocs, especially after the repeal of Section 2A of the former Constitution. President Moi became very adept at using the Vice-Presidency as a carrot for keeping his allies in line. President Kibaki did the same by appointing, first Kijana Wamalwa, and later, Moody Awori, as his Vice-Presidents, ensuring that the vote-rich Western Province was kept in line during his presidency. Even after it all went pear-shaped after the 2005 Referendum, he did not re-think this tactic and he confirmed his lack of imagination when he appointed Kalonzo Musyoka as his V-P after the debacle that was the 2007 elections. The G7 hopes to use these kinds of tactics in their quest to keep Raila Odinga out of Harambee House in 2012. The spectacular lack of imagination is one reason why they should not be considered serious contenders for the presidency come 2012.

The numbers required for 2012 are very daunting: 50+1% of all votes cast, and at least 25% of votes cast in at least 24 of the 47 counties. The G7 calculates that it can unite to front one candidate, or in the alternative, 7 candidates with the view of denying Raila Odinga the 50+1% he needs to win outright and therefore push him into a run-off. They have not considered the possibility that neither of them commands the numbers to ensure that Mr Odinga does not win in their political back-yards. Only Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta can claim to have a modicum of power when it comes to the North Rift and Central Kenya respectively. Mr Musyoka proved to be a damp squib when it come to the command of Ukambani, which may help explain why he is slowly being sidelined in the G7 by his erstwhile allies. It may be that the anti-Raila glue is not strong enough to maintain the unity of the G7 before the next elections and this may be why it may yet disintegrate. Other factors that may contribute to the disintegration of the alliance include the fact that if all 7 do decide to stand for the presidency, they shall have to choose running mates from outside the alliance, perhaps from their satellites of acolytes. Further, if they cannot use the any of the 7 does actually manage to pip Raila Odinga to the post, they cannot use the Office of the President to reward the losers; that particular pork-barrel has been abolished by the Constitution. Nor can they count on enjoying a majority in Parliament which may yet hamper the effectiveness of their presidencies. Finally, the changing demographics of Kenya portend disaster for any person who thinks that ethnic communities are going to vote en bloc for any particular candidate simply because a politician, even a presidential contender, tells them to.

There is nothing logical to explain why they oppose a Raila presidency so viscerally. Messrs Musyoka, Ruto and Kenyatta have made their fight with the Prime Minister personal for no logical reason. If they were to take a page out of Martha Karua's playbook, or that of Rev Mutava Musyimi, they may yet make a dent in Mr Odinga's apparently unassailable national popularity. They must redefine the reasons why they want to be president other than they they do not want Mr Odinga to win. Kenyans want the next presidential poll to be based on ideas, ideology and national good. Simply painting this contest as Raila -v- The Rest is a recipe for failure. If they cannot see this, Kenyans should ignore their campaigns and go with those who at least espouse a modicum of a national plan for the country.