Will Odinga shoot himself in the foot?

The presidency is not for the weak or faint-hearted. That truism lies at the heart of every presidency, whether good or bad. The various contenders for the top job come 2012 have expressed their desires in the position, without demonstrating that they are strong or courageous, save for the Prime Minister and the Iron Lady of Gichugu. It could be argued that Mwai Kibaki's presidency was really a Presidency by Committee, seeing the overwhelming influence the so-called Mount Kenya Mafia has played in determining policy and strategy. The former Minister for Internal Security ad former Member for Kieni, Chris Murungaru, is quoted as saying that he ran the country during Mwai Kibaki's many health scares in 2003 and 2004. The influence of men ilk Dr Joe Wanjui and their ilk suggest that Mwai Kibaki did not so much as rule as preside over a Board of Directors, deciding how and when to take various actions, including the mass walkout of the Bomas Conference in 2003, denying Kenya its first realistic shot at a new constitution.

Martha Karua has demonstrated strength and courage, first in defying the Moi government in the manner she dealt with perceived insults by the former president. She then decided that she had had enough of the boys' club mentality of the Kibaki regime and walked out of government, taking her loyal Secretary-General with her. Her prior record when she was a member of the legal team that stood by Raila Odinga's side during the dark days of the Nyayo Era should not be discounted, even taking into account her robust and combative defense of the Kibaki election in 2007/08. She made her bed and she lay in it without regret.

Raila Odinga has taken many political risks, some verging on the reckless. When he agreed to share power with a man many considered had lost the presidential election, he also demonstrated pragmatism in the face f overwhelming odds. His stints in detention without trial have now become the stuff of legend, but they all point to a strength of character that many politicians, including many of his challengers for the presidency, lack. Surely, no one will deny that Mr Odinga has a strong personality, a resolute character and courageous heart and that these qualities will stand him in good stead should he take the presidency in August 2012.

But it is the other front-runners who cast poor shadows. Mr Kenyatta demonstrated a flicker of honour when he graciously conceded to Mwai Kibaki in 2002, but his actions since then have not been true to the spirit of leadership or the demands of political power. When he decided to cast his lot with the PNU machine, despite the fact that he had been endorsed by his party to stand for the presidency, he not only betrayed his constituents, he ensured that the nation would be plunged into uncertainty should the presidential result be disputed. Mr Ruto, on the other hand, has never had a conviction that he could not abandon, jumping from KANU to the LDP to ODM and now to UDM in his quest for personal political glory. The same can be said for Mr Musyoka, who decided that he could not live with the vision of a man he once participated in jailing at the height of Moi's government when he showed that he commanded a greater personal following than he. Despite Mr Musyoka's near twenty-six years of political activity, he cannot demonstrate that the people of Kenya hold him in the same stead as Raila Odinga and this has informed his persistent animus against the Member for Langata.

When the ballots open in 2012, the people of Kenya will be entering uncharted territory. If the politicians agree to play by the rules and to accept the verdict of the people, the character of the 11th Parliament will be so different as to constitute fresh start for one and all. There will be an expanded National Assembly, a new Senate, County Governments, a professional Cabinet and independent offices and institutions. Kenyans will be forced to contend with the fact that t is no longer business as usual and that the new rules will require all parties to keep a beady eye on their rivals and on the institutions of governance. The questions of development and equitable distribution of national resources will occupy the minds of everyone with view to striking the fairest balance for the good of the nation. Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Mr Musyoka have a choice to make, and if they make the wrong choices, they may find their political careers coming to an end with the spectre of a man they have come to loath lording it over them. This must keep them up at night, and Kenyans on tenterhooks. As the Americans are fond of saying, this election is Mr Odinga's to lose.