Silly, presumptuous me! It seems that Raila Odinga is not quite asleep at the wheel as it may have earlier appeared. He is slowly but steadily rebuilding the ODM ship after it foundered in the shallows of the post-Referendum stage. He went to Meru and cleaned up the spoils. He attended Kosgey's son's wedding, and Sally Kosgei could be seen staring in his eyes with can only be described as heart-felt relief. He went to Mombasa and Najib Balala came crawling back amidst jeers of "Kigeugeu" by, I suppose, the vocal supporters of Kisauni's Ali Hassan Joho. It remains to be seen if the new love-in between Raila Odinga and his bosom buddies will persist for the fifteen months remaining to the 2012 general elections. Politics is about chance and opportunity and who knows, perhaps these new-found friendships may not last that long. But, seeing the way politicians are sorting out the chaff from the wheat, this may be an alliance that lasts.
Raila Odinga is a formidable politician and it bears repeating for some of us may forget that the man has come a long way from the days he maintained a crazy look in his eye and a rather cheesy goatee. He is quickly emerging as a statesman, even being called in by the African Union to help sort out continental issues when they prove too much to handle. He is on the phone-lists of heads of state even though he is not. He is attending high-level global chinwags and bringing home the bacon. Mr Odinga is behaving presidentially and it is not going un-noticed. Meanwhile, William Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka and Uhuru Kenyatta keep examining, re-examining, explaining and reiterating their relationship to all and sundry, fighting persistent rumours about the state of their political polygamous marriage (have they forgotten that Kenyan clergy have ruled that polygamy is un-Kenyan and un-Christian?) Given their constant need to remind Kenyans of their unity, perhaps we should be considering the fact that if the main players are not sure about the state of their relationship that it may not be the best bet for a Kenya in transition.
Mr Odinga has a consistent record, despite his many flaws. Messrs Kenyatta, Ruto and Kalonzo have demonstrated a flip-flopping, tentative character that has bewildered many. It is unclear whether their only vision of Kenya is one where the Prime Minister does not ascend to the Presidency or something more worthwhile. It is easier to stand against something that to stand for something. What do these three stand for other than for Odinga's downfall? Despite Mr Odinga's support for the local tribunal option way back when it was clear that senior politicians would be in Justice Waki's list, the three consistently called for The Hague Option. Now that it is upon them, they are blaming their woes on the man who was originally on their side, and now that the ICC wishes to hold the hearings in situ, they are crying foul and want the proceedings as far away from home as possible!
There are lessons to be gleaned from the recent developments in Kenya's political scene. Never trust that the positions a politician takes are motivated by anything other than self-interest. Never assume that alliances will last. Never presume to call the game in favour of one or the other until the votes are counted and the dust settles. Whether the ODM returnees will stay the course will only be apparent when Kenya goes to the polls in 2012. Until then, it is still a very fluid situation.
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