Too early to tell

Article 138 (4) states that "a (presidential) candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives - (a) more than half the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties."

The presidential elections have always been about numbers and the 2012 one will be no different. The recent flurry of alliance-making has been informed by the numbers game. It is presumed by many that the aspiring presidential contenders have the support of the peoples they claim to represent. Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta, Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka and Hon. William Ruto are seen to control vast political blocs that may guarantee that at least one of them has the numbers to take the presidency. This may be true; but does Uhuru Kenyatta control the votes of Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a and Kiambu; or Kalonzo Musyoka of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui; or William Ruto of Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo/Marakwet, Nandi and Baringo? In addition, Hon. Ruto is seen as the Rift Valley kingpin, so does he have the additional support of the peoples of Laikipia, Nakururu, Narok, Kajiado, Kericho or Bomet?

The picture that is being painted by these assumptions is that these three control ethnic blocs that will vote as they are directed. The truth is rather more complicated. Uhuru Kenyatta is a relative newcomer to elective politics, though he was first elected to Parliament in 2002. He is not the only presidential contender from the five counties that make up the erstwhile Central Province. There is Martha Karua, whose combative style is sue to give him a run for his money. She may persuade the voters of Kirinyaga to reject Uhuru's advances. William Ruto comes from the erstwhile Rift Valley province, which is a cosmopolitan place with peoples from other parts of the country settling in its fertile plains. He will have to persuade the many Kikuyus, Luos, Kisiis, and Luhyas in the region to prefer him over 'their' candidates come 2012. Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka is perhaps the one with the least chance of even taking the Ukambani Counties with him in 2012. If his performance during the referendum is anything to go by, he wa largely blamed for the lucklustre performance of the region, when it barely managed to ratify the Constitution. He will have to contend with the popular Mama Rainbow, as Charity Ngilu is popularly known, who may choose to endorse an 'outsider' like he defender, Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Looking at the arithmetic through tribal lenses shows that for the declared presidential aspirants the path to State House is riven with compromises that would make it very, extremely, difficult for them to attain their goals.

What we want is a candidate with cross-country appeal. Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Ruto have cross-country name-recognition, but no polling has been done to determine their approval ratings yet as individuals. It is presumed that Ms. Karua's 'unfavourables' are higher than her 'favourables', though, again, no polling data is available to confirm this. It does not help that a perception is going that she is in league with a dangerous criminal. Mr. Odinga, on the other hand, enjoys cross-country name-recognition and popularity, though whether these are 'solid' will only become apparent come 2012. It is yet to be seen whether there will be a 'Third Way' candidate who can cause an upset. Prof. Makau Mutua has called on Abdikadir Mohammed and Rev. Mutava Musyimi to throw their hats in the ring, given the effective way they have performed in Parliament and Parliamentary Committees. Mr. Mohammed has been an effective leader of the PSC on Constitutional and Legal Affairs and his personal popularity reflects the manner in which he successfully steered the process of constitutional reform in its last stages. Rev. Musyimi is notable for opposing the Proposed Constitution, though this does not seem to have engendered feelings of animosity against him, given his perceived personal probity and intelligence.

Therefore, any candidate who wants to take the presidency must garner 50+1% of all votes cast, and at least 25% of votes cast in each of at least 24 of the counties. At this stage it is too early to predict that any candidate has the numbers, and if any of them is going to rely on the candidates in any of the constituencies to deliver the votes in their constituencies, the going will be tough; MPs have not acquitted themselves well in the past few weeks.