Sunday, November 07, 2010

Niccholo Machiavelli would have loved Kenya in 2010

In carrying his cross, William Kipchirchir Samoei arap Ruto (ODM, Eldoret North) has gone to The Hague to present his statement before the International Criminal Court. Hon. Ruto is setting the tone for political debate for the next two years and he has stolen a march on the Prime Minister and his acolytes. He has always proclaimed his innocence in the light of the startling allegations made against him by among others, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, regarding the violence that rocked the nation after the 2007 general elections. He has claimed a political hand in these allegations, that they have been made in order to prevent him from making a successful bid for the Presidency in December 2012. The Eldoret North MP and the Prime Minister are now formally locked in a battle of wits and supremacy and only one of them can emerge victorious.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga (ODM, Langata) has come out strongly in defence of the embattled Minister for Water and Irrigation, Hon. Charity Ngilu (NARC, Kitui Central) after allegation of graft were levelled against her and the Permanent Secretary, Eng. David Stower by a disgruntled former assistant minister, Festus Mwangi Kiunjuri (PNU, Laikipia East). Hon. Kiunjuri alleges irregularities in the awarding of tenders by the ministry and the Prime Minister took it upon himself to declare Hon. Ngilu's innocence, before backpedalling in the light of severe criticism from the likes of the Minister for Public Health and Sanitation, Beth Mugo (PNU, Dagoretti) and the Minister for Justice, Constitutional Affairs and National Cohesion, Hon. Mutula Kilonzo (ODM-K, Mbooni). The Prime Minister is going to be busy putting out fires for his political allies while Hon. Ruto will be re-writing history with him in the role of the underdog.

Hon. Odinga and Hon. Ruto evoke strong emotions whenever their names are mentioned. Hon. Ruto is seen as a 'typical Kalenjin', incapable of empathising with the plight of non-Kalenjins, caring only for 'his' people. Hon. Odinga is portrayed as a power-hungry Luo, out to destroy what the House of Mumbi has spent generations building. A political narrative is being written to portray the 2012 presidential election as a battle between the Prime Minister and the spunky, wily MP from the North Rift.

It is interesting to note that a few Members of Parliament are discharging their duties as MPs and Members or Chairs of Parliamentary Committees with as little fanfare as possible, with barely noticeable speculation that they would make excellent alternatives to the combative front-runners. Rev. Mutava Musyimi (PNU, Gachoka), the man who denied ODM Pentagon member Joe Nyaga (ODM, Nominated) a seat in Parliament that had been held by his family for dog's years, is now being seen as a credible alternative to the usual Raila or Ruto rigmarole and his role on Parliamentary Committees has been lauded as low-key and professional. Despite his opposition to the new Constitution, rev. Musyimi does not evoke feelings of loathing from the general public; in fact, he does not seem to feature at all in national discourse vis-a-vis the 2012 presidential elections.

As a result of his midnight flight to the Netherlands, Hon. Ruto has ensured that the spotlight remains firmly on him. What did he have to say to the ICC prosecutors? What names did he name? Will the president and prime minister be forced to make similar statements? Will other Waki Envelope Suspects also make similar arrangements? We will all watch keenly as the erstwhile Minister for Higher Education walks the tightrope that he has strung between his possible ICC indictment and his political ambitions because if he stumbles, then the prime minister has a clear shot for the presidency. If he successfully makes his way across, Hon. Ruto will have managed to embarrass the plans of the Prime Minister and given himself an unassailable public profile to boot. 

Hon. Odinga is now being advised to allow his political allies to be treated in the same manner as Hon. Ruto regarding allegations of corruption or violations of Chapter 6 of the Constitution (Leadership and Integrity), hence his walking back the statements he has made in defence of the Water Minister and the strong-arming of MPs to 'save' the Local Government Minister, Musalia Mudavadi (ODM, Sabatia). 

Najib Balala (ODM, Mvita) has already demonstrated a disturbing tendency towards independent thought and Joe Nyaga is all but done in Gachoka politics. Ababu Namwamba (ODM, Budalang'i), despite being yanked back into line by the PM, is a political light-weight, incapable of providing the political cover the PM needs to do things his way. So are Millie Odhiambo, Orwa Ojode, Otieno Kajwang, Esther Ongoro, or even his brother, Oburu Odinga. He has already been deserted by the entire Kalenjin ODM wing and it remains to be seen if he will successfully string together a new alliance with MPs from outside the ODM house, especially allies of Uhuru Kenyatta or Kalonzo Musyoka. 

The Prime Minister's recent failure to reverse the elections of Abdikadir Mohammed and Millie Odhiambo as the chairman and vice-chairman of the Constitutional Implementation Oversight Committee point to future difficulties regarding his choice of heads for key constitutional implementation bodies. It also does not help that it is perceived the PM also has his nose firmly in the trough with allegations regarding the appointment of his relatives in the diplomatic corps. 2012 is not the clean sweep that it has been made out to be, and if Hon. Ruto successfully manages to rescue himself from political obscurity, that will be the beginning of the end of the PM's presidential ambitions. He forgot an important Machiavellian principle: keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Alternatively, if you are going to destroy your enemies, strike first, strike fast, and strike hard.

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