Dr. Michael Otieno, a 'policy analyst', states that Big Business (Big Pharma, Big Oil, Big Tobacco, et al)is set to be the one factor that will determine the governments that we will have, either at national or county levels. He sees the influence of Big Money on politics well into the campaigns for the presidency, governorships, senate seats, and constituency seats growing over the next two years and influencing to a great extent the nature of government and what it can and cannot do. He dismisses the monies that will be donated by the hoi polloi as of no consequence. He may be right; but he is wrong in one respect. The effect of Big Money on elections in Kenya is not new or unique; money has always been the factor that guaranteed success for one candidate over another and this is not bound to change overmuch with the coming of the new Constitution.
The Constitution has created forty seven new Counties. There will be campaigns to be governor and members of county assemblies. Senate seats will be allocated to the Counties too. In addition, the Constitution has mandated the creation of eighty new constituencies to be carved out of the existing two hundred and ten. In addition, the Constitution has separated the Executive branch from the legislative one by mandating that Cabinet Secretaries will be drawn from outside the legislature. Additionally, the Constitution has also separated day-to-day politicking from the governance of the country by stating that no public officer, and this includes elected Members of Parliament, county assemblies, county governors and deputy governors, senators, as well as the president and deputy president cannot hold offices in their political parties. The game is about to change in many unforeseen ways.
In the last general election, much treasure was expended to elect the president. Under the old Constitution, the president was an all-powerful potentate who could reward his allies with sinecures in the cabinet, parastatals, the diplomatic service and sundry commissions and the like. This has now been outlawed by the Constitution. Appointment to Cabinet, even for the non-politician, will be with the approval of the National Assembly. The rules have been tightened to ensure that someone who fails to win an election will not automatically be rewarded by a post in government. This will change the nature of campaigning and politicking and the influence of money.
First, come the numbers. Parliament shall consist of 350 members, or 349 if we exclude the speaker. The senate shall consist of 68 members, or 67 if we exclude the speaker. Assuming that the winning presidential candidate shall have a majority in the national Assembly as well as in the Senate, he will need 175 allies in the National Assembly and 34 in the Senate in order to pass legislation that he favours. Whoever decides to pour money into his campaign in order to influence government policy, must pour enough to ensure that the president and deputy president enjoy a majority in Parliament. The nature of campaigning in Kenya virtually ensures that there will be some form of voter bribery. Therefore, the campaign funds will have to be spent in such a way as to ensure that the bribery is uniform enough to be able to influence the course of the election. Is Big Business prepared to devote significant amounts of what will be shareholders' monies to ensure that the candidates of their choice emerge victorious? How will they be able to do so in what is bound to be a competitive business market without giving ground to their competitors? Remember that these are monies that will be spent in ensuring that Parliamentary is stuffed with their allies. It does not take into account the campaigns in the 47 counties.
At the referendum, the voters roll contained about 14 million voters. However, only about 9 million voted in the referendum. If we assume that the voters roll will only increase by 2 million, that is 16 million potential voters in 2012. Assuming that only 10 million will vote, this is the target of the Big Money that will be devoted to creating a business-friendly legislature and to elect their choice of candidates to the presidency and deputy presidency. Roumour has it that Gideon Mbuvi Kioko, the victor of the Makadara bye-election, spent approximately KES 150 million to secure his victory. Given the populous nature of the constituency, let us assume that the cost of winning a generic parliamentary seat will be 90 million shillings. The cost for the 290 seats up for grabs comes to approximately KES 26.1 billion! Add the forty seven senate seats, the number balloons to 30.33 billion shillings! This computes to KES 3,033 for every voter who actually votes in 2012. Assuming that only a quarter of the actual voters get bribed, the cost per voter goes up to KES 12, 132!
Whose company's shareholders will sit idly by as billions in shareholder value is dedicated to the general election? If Big Business has started making arrangements to siphon off billions in shareholders' funds for the coming campaigns, it is time they started making allocations in their plans over the next two years, otherwise there may be a proliferation of shareholder suits against the directors of these companies. many of the companies operating in Kenya are multi-nationals, with headquarters in Western capitals where any form of corporate corruption is taken dimly. These directors may have to face the wrath of foreign governments in addition to the complications they may face here.
It is barely a month since the Constitution was promulgated. Until the political dust settles on the referendum and the bye-elections, it is premature to proclaim that Big Money will have such a pernicious influence on the coming general election. It would be prudent to study the political terrain, the potential alliances, the nature and calibre of potential candidates, before we can make a determination of how and where money will be a factor. Candidates will still need to spend on advertising, campaign material and a campaign machinery, but it is early days to start thinking of how much will be spent to win the presidency or the 47 governorships.
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