Sunday, September 12, 2010

August 7, 1998 was a precursor to 9/11

Nine years ago the United States of America suffered what has come to be described as the worst intelligence failure since the attack on Pearl Harbour by the Imperial Japanese Navy on December 7, 1941. As a result, the United States formally entered the Second World War and the rest, as they say, is history. On September 11, 2001, President George W. Bush was informed of the surprise attack on the American homeland by operatives of the Al Qaeda terrorist organisation, whose death toll would rise to over 3,000 as the news unfolded. As a result, the people of the United States rallied behind their political leadership as it declared war on those it deemed responsible for the reprehensible act. The world's policeman had been caught by surprise by a dedicated group of murderers who operated out of caves and employed rudimentary intelligence techniques to fly under the radar. In less than 6 months, the United States was bombing the strongholds of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, a country so backward that there was nothing worthwhile to bomb after 3 days.

On this anniversary of that terrible day, it is imperative to look back and learn from the events of 2001 and their aftermath. 9/11 was the terrible price the Americans paid for encouraging a rag-tag band of cut-throats to develop their skills and then abandon them without giving them so much as a Golden Parachute for their services. The Mujahideen who had been the primary instrument of the Americans in their Cold War with the Soviet Union were financed, trained, armed and unleashed on the occupying forces with the active participation of the Pakistani ISI and the quiet acquiescence of the world. When the Berlin Wall came down, the Americans simply abandoned their erstwhile friends and reverted to their own cocoon of making more and more money at the expense of everyone else. The Mujahideed morphed into the Taliban and some of them became active members of the Al Qaeda, gaining more experience in the killing fields of Chechnya and Bosnia. By the time they turned their eyes to the US, it was too late: they had developed a great amount of anger against that country and the terrible bill came due on 9/11.

Kenya is at a crossroads today. Our borders are not as secure as we would like them to be. There is still the festering boil that is the civil war in Somalia, the tension in Southern Sudan and the insurrection in Northern Uganda. As a result, we have constant streams of refugees with noble and ulterior motives entering Kenya almost at will. Our TV stations have exposed the human trafficking that takes place across our unsecured borders as a consequence of the various insurgencies and the corruption of our security apparatus. If we are not careful, the varous wars will spill over into Kenya and not just in the border areas. These are people who have a lot of experience in fighting guerrilla wars and if they decide to export their wars on our streets, Kenyan society does not have anything tat can match them. It is imperative that our engagement with these nations has an end-game in mind, where their civil situations are improved and their nations are at peace. Only then can we hope to have a secure homeland. The Americans forgot this lesson, and 9/11 was the price they paid. By abandoning the Afghanis to their fate, they did not anticipate the the civil chaos thousands of kilometres away would lead to a terrible blow. If Kenya stands idly by and watches as Somalia, Southern Sudan and Northern Uganda continue to burn, it is only a matter of time before we have another August 7, 1998.

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