Thursday, June 23, 2005

Super-powers do not tip-toe into battle

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the world was left with a Hyperpower: the USA. But you wouldn't know it. Its success in cobbling together a coalition for the 1st Gulf War was followed by failures in Somalia, the Balkans and the rest of Africa, but worse, with a continuing number of terrorist incidents against the US, both on American soil and abroad. The 1998 Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania were followed 3 years later with the fall of the Twin Towers in New York.

America responded as only a World Power should-it declared the guilt of the perpetrators without fail and punished them immediately, and installed a friendly government in their place.

What is taking place in Iraq today, belies these strides the US had taken since 9/11. It first failed to declare Saddam as guilty of all their charges. When it came time to invade, the US couldn't even convince Saddam's enemies to support them in the invasion. And when they finally invaded, they tip-toed into battle with a cowardly attempt at assassination that was not worthy of a world power. And today, the US would be hard-pressed to find a nation that will give it the benefit of the doubt on any issue.

After the 2nd World War, the US was actively involved in the reconstruction of Western Europe, with much success too. At the same time, the creation of NATO was meant to offer a bulwark against adventurism by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact nations. This strategy was a resounding success. But the root of this success wasn't that the US shared common values with Europe, but that it was facing a threat from the Soviet Union, and it had to balance that threat with it's own might right at Moscow's doorstep.

Today, the US faces a different threat, but no less dangaerous than that by the Soviet Union: religiously-inspired Islamist terrorism. And this threat emanates in the Arabian world. The implications are important. The conclusions so far have been accurate, it is the policies to address this threat that are faulty.

In West Asia, there are two important factors to consider: 1) Arab oil, and 2)Israel. These factors will continue to determine US involvement in the Middle East for the foreseeable future. For the US to prevail, it must choose one of two paths.

The first will be to decide once and for all the Palestinian Issue-with or without Israel's support. A great deal of the resentment against the US in the Arab world is due to its policies as regards this conflict, ergo, to resolve it will remove a major bone of contention. The US must decide whether it profits it to remain blindly loyal to Israel's ambitions. If the answer is no, US foreign policy must reflect a growing awareness that friendship with Israel is creating more enemies than profits.

The second is to 'democratize' the Arab world. This should be along the lines of the American intervention in Europe with the Marshall Plan and NATO. To do this, the US must disengage from Europe. Europe no longer needs American metal to protect it from the Soviets. The former Soviet Republics are in no position to mount an assault on the US, or for that matter, Europe. They are not in a position to do so politically or economically or militarily. They are a spent force, and they are more than willing to take the steps necessary to be admitted in the European Union. Moscow, is not in a position to browbeat or bribe them into an expansionist agenda today.

So, America is faced with the prospect of continued European goodwill and continued Arab ill-will. To counter this ill-will, the US must engage the Middle East more broadly than just through the twin subjects of the Palestinian issue and oil. The US must create a new Marshall Plan for the Middle East, not so much for economic development as for ploitical and social development to bring them more in line with other democracies globally.

This will have a salutary effect all round. The natives will be assuaged, their anger against the US will be reduced, America will more or less be guaranteed a less volatile oil supplier and the need to 'punish' the US by the disaffected will be diminished. The US will always be resented for being the most powerful. But it is precisely because it is the most powerful that it must act selfishly to democratize the Middle East so that the threat against American interests is reduced or even eliminated. There can be no other reason to the pursuit of foreign policy by the world's only hyperpower.

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