Saturday, June 25, 2005

Kibaki's weaknesses will kill him politically

What I can't figure out is why Kibaki simply didn't do what Moi had always done when in power: emasculate all his enemies as soon as they were apparent and even when they showed any potential. And Kibaki's enemies are manifest. You do not have to go outside the NARC tent to find enemies, they are all over the place.

The 2003 Inauguration Ceremony demonstrated that he was indeed weak and that he had no idea of what to do. It can be argued that the reason that he was so listless was that he was coming off a life-threatening accident and therefore couldn't summon up his personal will at that time. If this were true then he should have asserted himself as soon as he was well again and back on his feet. But this is not what happened-instead, he let his Cabinet behave like indisciplined schoolchildren in need of a serious spanking. Moi, even when unwell, was always the undisputed leader and pretenders to his throne were at the greatest risk when he was so indisposed. The contrast with the current Rais is shocking to say the least.

Now that Kibaki has completely destroyed all the goodwill his regime enjoyed in January 2003, what can he do to salvage this fiasco? I would say, it isn't too late to remove all those obstacles in his way to retaining power. Ironically, the one person close to Kibaki who understands the manifest uses of power is Lucy. For a money-hungry shrew, she understands that to be powerful is more important than to be liked. This is a lesson Kibaki needs to take to heart, and quickly.

Kibaki needs to reassert himself. He can only do so by taking over the process of policy making in his Government, setting the agenda for the next two years, and the Cabinet following him. He must get rid of Biwott and Nyachae, one way or the other, and he must make sure that Uhuru doesn't enjoy any moment of peace in his running of the Kanu ship.

How can this be achieved? Ruthlessness, that's how. Why would the President fear anyone? Biwott and Nyachae are not enough to topple his government or mount an offensive on their own in Parliament. Uhuru is busy fighting a rearguard action with Biwott for the control of Kanu. It seems that it is Biwott who is using Kibaki to settle scores with Uhuru rather than the opposite. For Kibaki to emerge triumphant, Narc must benefit and the erstwhile members of the opposition muust lose. He must appease his people-after all they are the ones who made him President. They all have pet projects that need to be implemented. Ngilu has her Health Bill, Raila has the PM's post, Kalonzo want Foreign Affairs back and so on. Kibaki must find a way of living with popular politicians in his cabinet so that he can jettison the assistance of the Nyachaes and Biwotts. He must be ready to deal ruthlessly and, if necessary, viciuosly with the Opposition so as to secure for his regime a second coming. From where he is standing today, his days in power are almost over. If he can't see it, then he doesn't deserve to be Rais.

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