Fifteen years ago, Raila Odinga was cheated of electoral victory. The electoral theft led to widespread violence that was ruthlessly suppressed. Many Kenyans were killed. Hundreds of thousands were displaced from their homes. If it was not for the intervention of the global community, Kenya might not have been able to put itself together again. After tense negotiations, Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga agreed to form a government of national unity.
Twenty years ago, or thereabouts, Raila Odinga led his party and a bunch of other into a merger with Kanu. He was appointed the Secretary-General of the merged political party. When President Moi cheated Mr. Odinga out of a fair and transparent political party nomination process to be the presidential flag bearer, he decamped again, and led his bunch of rebels into a merger with Mwai Kibaki's Democratic Party and Charity Ngilu's Social Democratic Party, among others, and formed the National Rainbow Coalition, that went on to win the 2002 general election.
Five years ago, after months of political instability that arose after the hotly-contested 2017 presidential election, Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta shook hands and decided to bury the hatchet. Initially, William Ruth, the then Deputy President, supported The Handshake but when it became clear that Uhuru Kenyatta was deterred to renege on the agreement that he would put his weight behind Mr. Ruto for the presidency, Mr. Ruto became a bitter opponent of the arrangement. When Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga initiated the BBI process to amend the constitution, Mr. Ruto secretly financed law suits to defeat the proposals in the courts. He was successful in his efforts.
Now it is barely six months since President Ruto was sworn in as Kenya's fifth president and Mr. Odinga is sniping at his heels with his programme of political rallies aimed at weakening the President's grip on his government. Trial balloons have been floated suggesting that maybe it is time for the President and Mr. Odinga to ink their own version of a political agreement along the same lines as the agreements Mr. Odinga has had with Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta. It is, the whispers strongly insist, the only way that the new president can turn his attention to governing and dealing with the myriads of challenges facing his government, including the precarious economic situation, the dangerous effects of the prolonged drought, the violence engulfing pastoralist areas in the North Rift, and Kenya's military engagements in Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The proposals for a new handshake are not as asinine as they appear; they would fall neatly into the same category as all previous Raila Odinga handshakes with Kenyan presidents. Despite his advancing age, and unkind insinuations that he is over the hill, Mr. Odinga remains the most consequential political leader in Kenya for at least three generations. Mwai Kibaki, president and all, only has two things by which we remember him: the 2007-2008 crisis and Kenya Vision 2030. Uhuru Kenyatta will be remembered for the scandals surrounding the National Youth Service, the Standard Gauge Railway and the Nairobi Expressway Project. Mr. Odinga, on the other hand, has had a hand in the 1982 attempted coup (for which he was detained for almost a decade), putting the final nail in Kanu's coffin, the rallying call in the 2002 general elections (Kibaki Tosha!) and, in one way or the other, the final push for a new constitution.
President Ruto and his acolytes would be best served by not dismissing the handshake idea out of hand. So long as Mr. Odinga can marshal tens of thousands of Kenyans, rich and poor alike, from all ethnic backgrounds, to the streets, the president cannot afford to dismiss Mr. Odinga as an old political has-been. Whether or not it will dawn on the president that it is better for Mr. Odinga to be inside the tent pissing out depends almost entirely on whether or not he has honest advisors telling him the truth, as opposed to courtiers hell-bent on making a fast shilling. If for no reason, the president must bear in mind that three different presidents saw the wisdom of having Mr. Odinga in their governments.
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