In
Prof Makau Mutua's opinion, Kenya is at a stage where the politics of
issues is possible and so he calls the apparently blossoming
relationship between Prime Minster Raila Odinga and Eldoret North MP
William Ruto a poisoned chalice (Raila must shun Ruto or pay the political price, Sunday Nation,
June 17, 2012). He warns the Prime Minister that not only will he lose
the world should he choose to rekindle his romance with Mr Ruto, but
that he will lose his soul in the bargain. Prof Mutua deduces that there
is cabal surrounding the Prime Minister that is leading him down the
wrong road and that these men and women do not have the Prime Minister's
or the country's interests at heart. He advances the proposition that
the general election will not be won on the basis of tribal mathematics,
but in the way politicians and candidates address contemporary issues
that affect the day to day lives of Kenyans, including, I suppose, such
bread and butter issues as the rising cost of living and the continued
unemployment of the youth.
It is dangerous to compare presidential politics in Kenya with what prevails in the United States Prof Mutua attempts to do. While the influence former heads of state wield in their political parties is great, it diminishes in time. It has been the case in the United States that the influence of living former presidents on general elections depends almost entirely on the performance of incumbent presidents. George W Bush is more or less out of the limelight; this is not the case for Bill Clinton, who has joined the fray in favour of a second Obama administration and helping the incumbent to raise millions of dollars for the fall campaign. In Kenya, however, President Moi continues to cast a very long shadow, hence Prof Mutua's reference to Moi's Orphans who included the incumbent President, the late Prof George Saitoti, and the wily Rift Valley kingpin, William Ruto. It is in the place of the ethnic community in the political calculations of presidential candidates that Prof Mutua makes fatal assumptions.
Right-thinking Kenyans would like to be seen as cosmopolitan and post-tribal inn their political engagements. What they do, however, speaks louder than their public posturing. In Kenya, it is nearly impossible for a presidential candidate to emerge from outside the existing Parliament. Today, all serious presidential candidates receiving inch-columns of newsprint are sitting Members of Parliament and the Cabinet. All of them claim, or would like to claim, the loyalty of their ethnic communities and to decide for them where to cast their votes in 2013. Not even Raila Odinga has escaped the ethnic maths that goes to crafting a winning strategy at the hustings. While he may have preached national cohesion and unity in his campaign so far, his surrogates march to a different tune, attempting to sabotage the ethnic engineering of the Prime Minister's opponents while ensuring that his is done surreptitiously. The Friends of Raila, just like the Gang of Seven, is an attempt to craft a winning tribal alliance that will send the Prime Minister to State House in 2013. It is time we accepted this and learned to live with it.
Until all Kenyans are sufficiently well-educated to think beyond the needs and wants of their ethnic communities, their view of the political world will be through the prism of their tribal cocoons. Even in cosmopolitan towns, Kenyans are unlikely to cast heir ballot for a person who is not one of their own. This is a phenomenon that the Prime Minister sees and accepts and is attempting to exploit to his own benefit. It will be political suicide for any presidential candidate to concentrate solely on the bread-and-butter issues that keep Kenyans awake at night at the expense of a simpler strategy of promoting the interests of your ethnic community while promising benefits to those communities that line up for you. The PM knows this and that is why his surrogates are making forays into traditionally hostile regions to make deals with the kingpins in those communities in the name of the Prime Minister. High-minded campaigns like those of Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth are bound to flounder, while those of Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta place them in positions where they can challenge the PM on an equal footing. Should it become clear to them and their supporters that all is lost, it is almost certain that they will attempt to salvage some pride by allying themselves with the PM before it is too late. Daniel Toroitich arap Moi was the last candidate to run a truly cosmopolitan campaign; he could do so because of his long stint in power and the fact that he was cannier and more ruthless than the men and women who dared to challenge his hegemony. President Moi was the last true president of all Kenyans. Not even Jomo Kenyatta came close.
Therefore, the recent moves by the PM's and William Ruto's surrogates to bury the hatchet should be seen in the context of the politics of today. This move was going to happen sooner or later. The PM surely, must calculate that it is better to test the waters today rather than later in order to prepare Kenyans for the harsh reality that is Kenyan politics. Instead of condemning the PM, we must appreciate that he had no choice in the matter. What he does with the opportunities that come his way, whether he takes State House or not, will determine whether Kenyans will be able to live with a permanent tribalised political environment or whether they will surmount it for the sake of our collective futures.
It is dangerous to compare presidential politics in Kenya with what prevails in the United States Prof Mutua attempts to do. While the influence former heads of state wield in their political parties is great, it diminishes in time. It has been the case in the United States that the influence of living former presidents on general elections depends almost entirely on the performance of incumbent presidents. George W Bush is more or less out of the limelight; this is not the case for Bill Clinton, who has joined the fray in favour of a second Obama administration and helping the incumbent to raise millions of dollars for the fall campaign. In Kenya, however, President Moi continues to cast a very long shadow, hence Prof Mutua's reference to Moi's Orphans who included the incumbent President, the late Prof George Saitoti, and the wily Rift Valley kingpin, William Ruto. It is in the place of the ethnic community in the political calculations of presidential candidates that Prof Mutua makes fatal assumptions.
Right-thinking Kenyans would like to be seen as cosmopolitan and post-tribal inn their political engagements. What they do, however, speaks louder than their public posturing. In Kenya, it is nearly impossible for a presidential candidate to emerge from outside the existing Parliament. Today, all serious presidential candidates receiving inch-columns of newsprint are sitting Members of Parliament and the Cabinet. All of them claim, or would like to claim, the loyalty of their ethnic communities and to decide for them where to cast their votes in 2013. Not even Raila Odinga has escaped the ethnic maths that goes to crafting a winning strategy at the hustings. While he may have preached national cohesion and unity in his campaign so far, his surrogates march to a different tune, attempting to sabotage the ethnic engineering of the Prime Minister's opponents while ensuring that his is done surreptitiously. The Friends of Raila, just like the Gang of Seven, is an attempt to craft a winning tribal alliance that will send the Prime Minister to State House in 2013. It is time we accepted this and learned to live with it.
Until all Kenyans are sufficiently well-educated to think beyond the needs and wants of their ethnic communities, their view of the political world will be through the prism of their tribal cocoons. Even in cosmopolitan towns, Kenyans are unlikely to cast heir ballot for a person who is not one of their own. This is a phenomenon that the Prime Minister sees and accepts and is attempting to exploit to his own benefit. It will be political suicide for any presidential candidate to concentrate solely on the bread-and-butter issues that keep Kenyans awake at night at the expense of a simpler strategy of promoting the interests of your ethnic community while promising benefits to those communities that line up for you. The PM knows this and that is why his surrogates are making forays into traditionally hostile regions to make deals with the kingpins in those communities in the name of the Prime Minister. High-minded campaigns like those of Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth are bound to flounder, while those of Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta place them in positions where they can challenge the PM on an equal footing. Should it become clear to them and their supporters that all is lost, it is almost certain that they will attempt to salvage some pride by allying themselves with the PM before it is too late. Daniel Toroitich arap Moi was the last candidate to run a truly cosmopolitan campaign; he could do so because of his long stint in power and the fact that he was cannier and more ruthless than the men and women who dared to challenge his hegemony. President Moi was the last true president of all Kenyans. Not even Jomo Kenyatta came close.
Therefore, the recent moves by the PM's and William Ruto's surrogates to bury the hatchet should be seen in the context of the politics of today. This move was going to happen sooner or later. The PM surely, must calculate that it is better to test the waters today rather than later in order to prepare Kenyans for the harsh reality that is Kenyan politics. Instead of condemning the PM, we must appreciate that he had no choice in the matter. What he does with the opportunities that come his way, whether he takes State House or not, will determine whether Kenyans will be able to live with a permanent tribalised political environment or whether they will surmount it for the sake of our collective futures.
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