We are so screwed!

It is time we admitted to ourselves that the politics of issues and policies is a ways away here in Kenya; in the here and now, politics will be dominated by ethnic arithmetic, 'hate speech' and personalities. In fact, political parties, regardless of what the Constitution and the Political Parties Act say are mere briefcases holding the personalities of the 'party leaders', and not much else. Unlike other advanced democracies, even here in Africa such as the Republic of South Africa, political parties in Kenya are mere vehicles for demonstrating the clout and wealth of the men and women who helm them, and it is for this reason that despite the ratification and promulgation of the Constitution, and the enactment of the Political Parties Act, the good men and women atop the ODM, ODM-K, KANU, Ford-K, PNU, GNU, NARC, NARC-K, et al have been loath to give up the positions of authority in their parties, giving the lie that the rule of law is alive and well in Kenya.

Many well-meaning but misguided men and women are shouting themselves hoarse over the question of 'issues' in 2012, believing fervently that that their frequently sincere entreaties of the political class will bring them the light of day and they will cease obsessing over Raila Odinga's, Kalonzo Musyoka's, William Ruto's or Uhuru Kenyatta's chances at the hustings next year and they will instead start considering whether or not the National assembly and Senate should exercise a greater oversight over the Executive, what form devolution should take place, and what local government's place will be in the devolution structure. Kenya is today divided among those who dream of a more perfectly cohesive and integrated nation and those who do not give a hoot about national cohesion or integration. The reality is that in the midst of the worst employment crisis for a decade and the out-of-control cost of living, very few Kenyans give a damn about 'issues' and 'manifestos'; all they care about is keeping a roof over their heads, food on the table and clothes on their backs. Healthcare, even for the desperately in need, barely registers as a possibility today.

As a consequence of the prevailing economic condition, the apathy and malaise of the electorate, the bitter memories of 2007/2008 and the constant roiling of the waters by prominent members of the snake-oil selling class, the 2012 general elections will be anything but informed or informative. Instead, I fear, the world will be witness to a people who will have gone bat-shit crazy and the flames of 2007 and 2008 will look like Boy Scout camp fires. This time round, regardless of the entreaties of Koffi Annan and his Panel of Eminent African Personalities, there will be no voice of reason that will pull back the craven men and women of the political class from plunging this country headlong into an abyss that will have no bottom. We will no longer talk of IDP camps; the entire country will be one IDP camp.

The seeds of this destruction were sown the day that Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki smiled and shook hands and formed the Grand Coalition Government. On that day, schemers and plotters on both sides of the political divide were screwed over, and their chances of ascending smoothly to positions of greatness and power were shattered forever. Many were joining the Official Government for the first time and they felt cheated that 'their' side did not take it all; it was not right that they had to share spoils for which they had fought so hard with their bitter rivals. In time, however, they settled down into a symbiotic relationship of sorts; neither side wants the Coalition to collapse before the general elections and they are working hand in hand to ensure that the date of the next elections is pushed back as far as it will go. The wishes of Kenyans are irrelevant and they will see to it that they, and they alone, get their way; ordinary Kenyans can go take a hike if they don't like it.

It is strange to witness the gradual self-destruction of a nation; but the euphoria that accompanied the change of guard in 2003 marked a bleak and dystopian truth. The Treasury was bare; so were the halls of ideas, our universities, hollowed out by the constant, relentless and ruthless evisceration of their core beliefs and core principles. By the time NARC was coming along, we were well and truly hardened to everything good and reliable; we have become the very caricatures that amuse us of the basket-cases of the world, from Libya to Lebanon, and from Haiti to to Kyrgyzstan. We are pale shadows of our pasts; our futures will bring nothing but pain and despair. It is time to admit that in this country, whether one is wealthy or not, educated or not, young or old, male or female, we are well and truly screwed and it will take the intervention of all the gods we know - and those that we don't - to get as a fair shake.