Is this Raila's last tango?

Is it too early to declare Raila Amollo Odinga, the Member for Langata and the Prime Minister of Kenya, the front runner in next year's presidential elections? The man who has come to define politics in the decade since President Moi's accursed regime came to an end is being billed as the man to beat come 2012. His erstwhile challengers, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta, have pending legal tribulations at The Hague, having been accused, rather ironically, of fanning the violence that engulfed parts of the erstwhile Rift Valley and Central Provinces in late-2007/early-2008; ironic because William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta were, during the last general elections, on opposite sides of the political divide, with Hon Ruto one of Raila Odinga's most strident supporters. Yet, somehow the two and Kalonzo Musyoka, all former staunch or current members of KANU, find themselves on the same political boat, determined to prevent the Prime Minister from ascending the presidency in 2012.

Prime Minister Odinga has come far since the fraught days of early 2008. Then, he was facing the worst aftermath of a general election in a generation; the country was engulfed in flames and his party was being blamed for the unremitting violence. The international community, though the good offices of the African Union and a panel of eminent African personalities, led by the former Secretary-General of the United nations, Koffi Annan, had stepped in and compelled Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki to set aside their mistrust ad suspicion for the sake of a peaceful Kenya. The ODM leader was facing five years sf political isolation if he did not agree to a deal; William Ruto, Sally Kosgey, Musalia Mudavadi and James Orengo spearheaded the ODM's negotiations with the PNU, hammering out a deal that saw Raila Odinga appointed the second Prime Minister in Kenya's history. The irony is not lost on Kenyans with an eye to their history: Uhuru Kenyatta's father, Jomo Kenyatta, was Kenya's first prime Minister upon Kenya attaining internal self-government, ascending the presidency after engineering Kenya's declaration of 'jamhuri' in 1964. In 1964, Oginga Odinga was Kenyatta's Vice-President. 46 years later and Raila Odinga is Prime Minister and Uhuru Kenyatta is Deputy Prime Minister.

Now Prime Minister Odinga wishes to use his office to vault onto the Presidency. Not only is he opposed by Uhuru Kenyatta, rekindling memories of the bitter rivalry between their respective fathers that nearly destroyed this nation in the '60s and '70s, he faces a rebellion from William ruto and his cohort from the North Rift and the possibility that he could also drive a wedge between the Prime Minister and other elected representatives of ODM from the former Rift Valley Province. Messrs Ruto and Kenyatta have managed to create the impression that the alliance arrayed against the Prime Minister is much larger than it seems, having persuaded the deeply distrusted Kalonzo Musyoka, the naive Eugene Wamalwa, the crass Chirau Ali Mwakwere, and a supporting cast of mouths-for-hire like the verbosely voluble Isaac Ruto and Joshua Kuttuny, to join the inaptly named G7. Trying to ensure that one of them becomes the Gang's torch-bearer, they have labelled the likes of Mutava Musyimi, Martha Karma and Peter Kenneth as traitors out to prevent one of their own from keeping Raila Odinga out of State House. It is the same case with talk of Raphael Tuju's candidacy as being sponsored by spoil-sports in PNU out to whittle down the Prime Minister support in Luo Nyanza.

The Prime Minister, as has become his norm, is two or three moves ahead of his rivals. he has set out to clean up his house, beginning with the realignment of his relationship with the lame-duck Mwai Kibaki. He followed this up with the removal of the ethnically-challenged Miguna Miguna, getting rid of a painful thorn in the PNU brigade's side and earning valuable brownie points with the President. Knowing how important it was for the President to have Prof Githu Muigai as Attorney-General, a man whom the PM respects and admires, he did not object both times the good professor was nominated, merely horse-trading this position for two others, the Controller of Budget and the Auditor-General. He has also undertaken a charm offensive, repeatedly visiting the Mount Kenya region to shore up what little support he had among its denizens, and commiserating with Kenyans in straitened circumstances in various parts of the country. he has also moderated his tone, preferring, to the utter annoyance of leading members of the G7, proverbs and metaphors to make his point. He has also demonstrated, quite ably too, that he can create an international coalition of development partners and Kenyans in the diaspora. But it is in wooing the business community that the PM hopes to reap the richest dividends, ensuring that his statements and actions have a calming effect on the stock markets and the export markets. He knows that he cannot blow his family fortune on a final presidential run, so he will need the even deeper pockets of the business world to bankroll what is sure to be the most expensive elections in a generation. His rivals, on the other hand, in addition to dealing with their ICC obligations, distrust each other greatly. Regardless of the public bonhomie between Uhuru and Ruto, or among the G7 three (Uhuru, Ruto and Kalonzo), none trusts the other to keep their end of the bargain, with Kalonzo frequently getting the short end of the stick. If by any chance Uhuru and Ruto get indicted by the ICC, there is every possibility that they will not work to ensure Kalonzo prevails against the PM, only that the PM does not prevail either. The revolving-door policy of the G7 does not help either with the apparent departures of Najib Balala and Dr Sally Kosgey. As 2012 approaches, the G7 must clean up their act or get their collective clocks cleaned by a revitalised Prime Minister.