If all goes according to the wishes of the majority of the citizens of South Sudan, in about five days they will ratify a decision to secede from Sudan and form the newest nation-state in Africa, South Sudan. Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir, the president of Sudan had promised in 1989 to crush all opposition to rule by the 'Arab' north, and he prosecuted the Second Sudan Civil War (1983-2005) with zeal until the determined forces of the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Army forced him to the negotiating table in 2004. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and the South culminates this week with a Referendum to determine the question of secession or unity between the North and South.
Dr. John Garang, the charismatic leader of the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement and the SPLA, who died under mysterious and suspicious circumstances, dreamt of the day when the peoples of the South would be allowed to determine their destiny and this Referendum is their chance to do so. If they vote for secession, their relations with the North will have crossed the Rubicon and will redefine what it means to be a Southerner in the largest nation-state in Africa.
The series of protocols that make up the CPA are the result of the realization that the North and South could not perpetuate the conflict forever. The South was determined to gain the right to self-determination while the North was determined to dominate the South, come what may. The Referendum was agreed upon when the CPA was signed ad the South is determined to secede from the North when the Referendum results are announced. Kenya has supported the right of the South to secede, seeing in the secession an opportunity to invest in what would be a green economy starting from scratch, offering business in Kenya an opportunity to enter a virgin market and exploit its resources for profit. In the period since the CPA was signed, thousands of Kenyan businessmen have made their way to Juba and other States in the South with business investment intentions and have been among the first to set up commercial enterprises in the South. Many are confident that regardless of the outcome of the Referendum, the North and South will not revert to war again, though tensions remain high.
However, it is the presence of China and India, among others, that will largely determine how the enormous oil deposits in Sudan are exploited. China has long used its veto in the UN Security Council to prevent the passage of resolutions against the Government of Omar al-Bashir, especially regarding the raging conflict in the Darfur region and the settlement of the Abiyei question. In return, it has won lucrative contracts for oil exploration at the expense of other nations. Kenya wants a piece of this pie and is, therefore, busily going ahead with the construction of a second port at Lamu to take advantage of the landlocked nature of the new nation-state of South Sudan. Should the port be constructed, it will spur the construction of vital communication links between the South and Lamu to transport goods and services between the Kenyan Coast and Juba. Even though the distance through Somalia is shorter, no one is confident that the peoples of Somali will find peace any time soon and it would be a high risk to build a road, railway and pipeline link between Juba and the Somali port of Hargeisa. The pacification of the South will also free up a significant proportion of Kenyan security forces to concentrate on the other headaches in the North, namely the Oromo Liberation Front operating out of Southern Ethiopia and the humanitarian crisis in Somalia.
It is, therefore, the national security implications and humanitarian considerations of the South Sudan Referendum that occupy the minds of Kenyan mandarins more than the commercial prospects. Kenya enjoys cordial relations with the United Republic of Tanzania and somewhat cordial relations with the Republic of Uganda. It is its northern frontier that is in ferment because of the tensions in Southern Sudan, Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and Northern Uganda. If all these tensions could be resolved, then Kenya can re-allocate the enormous resources it employs to monitor its frontiers towards alleviating the crushing poverty that afflicts its northern regions. Southern Sudan's peaceful Referendum is the first step towards realising this goal. Let us all pray that it goes off without a hitch, the North and South come to an agreement regarding the Abiyei, the Darfur uprising is resolved and Southern Sudan takes its place in the comity of nations. Then maybe we can start whupping their asses in football, though I am sure they will wipe our asses on the floor with their basketball team - those guys are really tall and athletic!
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