2013 is a different country

Those whom the gods wish to punish, answer their prayers, so the saying goes. Kenyans prayed for a new Constitution, any Constitution, and the gods answered our prayers with this bastard child. Look at how our revered Members of Parliament are gorging themselves on articles and sections as if these are the be-all-and-end-all of all creation. Now you have some lunatic proposing an amendment to extend the life of the discredited Ligale-led IIBRC. Another pair of nutters have gone to the High Court asking, among other prayers, that the National Assembly be prorogued because the National Assembly has failed to appoint the CIC and the CRA.

It is time for sanity to prevail, if it ever did, in the hallowed halls of the national Assembly. Everyone needs to kick back, relax, take a deep breath, and start over. Whatever one thinks of Hon. Ruto, none can deny that he faces challenges that have nothing to do with the ratification of the Constitution. Nor do the problems that assail the Honourable Member for Sirisia regarding his 'stepping aside'. The Member for Mathira has stated that he would rather not belong to the august House if it censures a sitting Judge for orders that she has granted in the matter related to the boundaries review. the Right Honourable Prime Minister has taken an acetylene torch to the gay community with a fervour that was absent during his pro-Constitution roadshows. The good lady from Kitui Central is facing her own road-to-Damascus moment and she refuses to heed the voice of the gods when they demand her resignation. Or 'stepping aside' in Kenyan parlance. None seems to want to admit that 2013 will be a different country.

Mr. Ligale has already set the cat among the pigeons. It is easier to create than to destroy and our political class knows this. Regardless of the feelings of Isaac Ruto and Ephraim Maina, the 80 constituencies that Ligale and his team created are here to stay. No amount of meeting and caucusing and political deal-making will reverse the creation of Kibra or any other new constituency. Rumours that the PM had a quiet word with the Commissioners, or the Commission's chairman, to create a Constituency tailor-made for his son Fidel, will be proven (or dis-proven) when we go to the polls in 2012. Whether Mike Sonko will be around to see the general elections will depend on how innocent he actually is. Or the permanent disappearance of all investigation and court files related to his current and past trials and tribulations. Whether Maina Njenga will give up his evangelical activities for the opportunity to govern Nairobi City County will depend on whether he sees profit in being a County Governor rather than in being the Chief Executive Officer of, what some claim, the best-run, most highly motivated, quasi-religious organised crime outfit in the history of the Republic, First or Second. Whether Uhuru 'UK' Kenyatta's alliance with Brother Stephen and Hon. William 'the king of the Kalenjin' Ruto will survive the attentions of the PM, will also depend on whether the PM has a hand in shipping off UK to The Hague to answer hard questions from one Luis Moreno-Ocampo. 2013 is a different country.

The political contours of 2012/2013 remain shrouded in uncertainty as MPs and other political animals get accustomed to the changed nature of governance. Assuming that each county shall have a 30-strong membership, there are, at a minimum, 290 National Assembly seats, 47 senate seats, 1410 county seats and about 3,000 council seats in the offing. This does not count the Executive positions and executive committee and cabinet positions to be shared between the political and professional classes. And then you have the Executive appointments to national security, diplomatic and parastatal positions that will be made. 2013 is a different country.

So, chill out, unwind, take a load off and keep an eye on the ball for when the real horse-trading begins, you will be shocked at how accommodating and considerate the warring parties will be. Wetangula, the two Rutos, Ephraim Maina, Beth Mugo, et al will suddenly discover a new vocabulary to describe the IIBRC or its successor and they will all live with their deals. Until the next conflict, that is.