The political process is very rarely perfect. If Kenya is anything to go by, the process involves countless compromises, conflicts of interest, corruption, lies and all manner of skulduggery. The current affair involving the Minister for Higher Education, Science and Technology, William Ruto (ODM, Eldoret North) is nothing new and the way it unfolds will be instructive if not but for the manner in which we will be schooled in the compromises that are sure to take place. Hon. Ruto, as is alleged, was involved in an 'irregular' transaction that involved the sale of government land without following the due process of law. It is alleged that he used undue influence, influence derived from his position in government, to ensure that the deal benefitted him and his cronies at the expense of the government, and by extension, the people of Kenya. When he was initially charged, Hon. Ruto went to court to challenge the constitutionality of the authority of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission. The Court of Appeal, four years after the constitutional challenge was filed, has now ruled that indeed Hon. Ruto and his accomplices can be tried.
Section 62 of the Anti-Corruption and Economic Crimes Act provides that where a public officer is charged with a crime under the Act, he shall be suspended from his office until the mater is determined. Section 63 provides that if he is convicted, his suspension shall continue until all appeals are concluded. Logically, once all appeals have been concluded and the conviction upheld, the public officer shall be dismissed from office. Hon. Ruto's allies and supporters, including Hon. Moses Lessonet (ODM, Eldama Ravine), argue that as the matter has been pending in the courts since at least 2005, there is no reason why he should step down as the Minister for Higher Education as the facts have not changed. The Prime Minister, when answering a question in Parliament put forward by the Member for Gichugu, Hon. Martha Karua (Narc-K), had argued that there was no need to suspend Hon. Ruto from his portfolio as the Court of Appeal had not determined his application. His thinking was that if there was a possibility that the Court of Appeal could rule in his favour there was no need to suspend him as such a determination would open the way for Hon. Ruto to make his way back to the Cabinet. Hon. Odinga's position was a fallacy. The At is clear - when a public officer has been charged, he MUST be suspended pending the determination of the suit.
The media has painted a picture in which the Prime Minister and the Minister for Higher Education are pitted as bitter political rivals. This picture has been embellished by the statements attributed to several MPs from Hon. Ruto's erstwhile Rift Valley Province such as Isaac Ruto (ODM, Chepalungu), Charles Keter (ODM, Belgut) and Hon. Lessonet that 'they' are being 'targetted', especially for the stand they took during the referendum campaigns earlier this year. However, this picture requires clarification in order to separate fact from wishful thinking.
During the general election campaign in 2007, Hon. Ruto and his allies were firmly identified as Hon. Odinga's most ardent supporters. Indeed, they were among the most vocal of the fact that the ODM flag-bearer had been cheated of his right to form the next government. However, after the violence that rocked the country, there was a re-alignment of forces, with Hon. Ruto attempting to craft an alliance outside the ODM umbrella, one that eventually came to be known as the KKK alliance which was meant to unite the political ambitions of the Vice President Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-K, Mwingi North), Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta (KANU, Gatundu South) and Hon. Ruto. The alliance was prematurely premised on the idea that the winning candidate in 2012 would be in a position to offer rewards to the other two in the ensuing government. However, Hon. Odinga played against the fears of this trio during the process of negotiating the structure of the new Constitution. The Prime Minister is an ardent observer of the mood of the country and he correctly guessed that the people were tired with the idea of elected politicians serving in government. However, to hide his plans he and his allies let be known that they would support only a Parliamentary System of Government where an executive prime minister would be in a position to pick his cabinet from among elected Members of Parliament, knowing full well that the KKK alliance would oppose this strategy, arguing that the Prime Minister was manipulating the process in order to give himself an advantage over the other presidential contenders, especially the proponents of the KKK alliance. Heading to the now infamous Naivasha retreat, the three campaigned for the idea that the executive should be a presidential one and when Hon. Odinga switched sides and agreed with them, they had no choice but to go along. The rug had been pulled from under them and they could not change their minds. They attempted to cobble together a Parliamentary majority to propose amendments to the proposed Constitution that would give them some advantage over the Prime Minister. They were unsuccessful and here we are today.
Hon. Karua wants to sow as much discord in ODM, to the extent that she hopes to bait the Prime Minister and the President into suspending the Minister for Higher Education until his case is determined. I do not see the two falling for this gambit. They know, and not incorrectly, that suspending Hon. Ruto would not serve the Prime Minister's plans for him to suspend Hon. Ruto from the Cabinet. Indeed, the Prime Minister is so alive to this fact that he has not taken any disciplinary action against Hon. Ruto in the party for opposing the party position in regards to the Referendum. The Prime Minister enjoyed wide support in the Rift Valley in the last general elections, largely because he was seen as a supporter of Hon. Ruto's ambitions in the province. He must calculate that it will be politically suicidal for him to be seen to be overtly against the Minister at this sensitive juncture and so I do not see him taking a position regarding the suspension of Hon. Ruto. If the president were, on his own volition, to suspend the minister, Hon. Raila may walk away from the affair with his hands relatively clean.
Regardless of the pronouncements of his supporters and allies, the Prime Minister knows that his chances of taking the presidency in 2012 are dependent on the level of support he will enjoy in the erstwhile Rift Valley. Therefore, I see him making a deal with Hon. Ruto. A sad truth that informed the reform of the Judiciary is that it is easily manipulated by the Executive. Thus, the Prime Minister may assure Hon. Ruto that the case against him may never be concluded if he comes back to the fold and offers the Prime Minister his full and vocal support. This would require that Hon. Ruto fully commit himself to a Raila presidency and part ways with his two partners in the KKK. Hon. Musyoka has already read the tea leaves and has embarked on a unilateral campaign to bolster his support in various pockets that are up for grabs, including his recent forays to Western Kenya. Despite Hon. Michuki's endorsement of Uhuru Kenyatta, he is not a serious presidential contender even if he decides to run a unilateral presidential campaign. He is in the same boat as Martha Karua and without a credible nationwide alliance, or one that unites a majority of the political regions in Kenya, his chances of winning the presidential election are slim, to say the least. Considering the level of acrimony that is directed at Central Kenya, he stands an even lesser chance of playing kingmaker come 2012.
Until the Prime Minister indicates what his long-term plans are we can assume that he will do nothing, or enough to ensure that Hon. Ruto survives until at least the general election. The little matter of the ICC investigation is a minor bother for them. It will only play a part in determining 2012 fortunes if the Prime Minister takes a hands on approach to how the investigation shapes up. It will be in his interests that the investigation takes long so that matters come to a head after 2012. How Hon. Ruto reacts to the Prime Minister's stance will also determine his fate. If he rejects the olive branch that ha been offered, then his fate will be sealed - if the Anti-Corruption Courts do not get him, the Prime Minister will see to it that the ICC does. Hon. Ruto has his fate in his hands and how he sees things leading up to 2012 will determine whether he gets to enjoy the perks of power or spend quality time with other accused persons in Kenya or in the Hague.
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