Ukambani has been reduced to three counties: Makueni, Machakos and Kitui. At present it has 17 MPs, led (if that is what it is) by the Vice-President, Kalonzo Musyoka. However, his hold on the leadership of Ukambani is not assured with the presence of Charity Ngilu and John Harun Mwau in the field. In recent months he has lost the support of the two Kilonzos, Charles and Kiema, both members of his party, ODM-K as a consequence of his vacillation on the question of whether or not to ratify the Proposed Constitution of Kenya. Even Hon. Ngilu's recent rapprochement with the Vice-President was not an endorsement of Kalonzo's leadership of the Akamba Nation.Save for the staunch support of the Hons. Mutula Kilonzo and Johnstone Muthama, Kalonzo increasingly cuts a lonely figure. Who can forget Hon. Wavinya Ndeti's harsh rebuff of the Vice-President some time ago? Or the continued antics of Kalembe Ndile?
The battle for supremacy ahead of the 2012 presidential elections sees Kalonzo as a viable candidate, especially if the so-called KKK alliance with Hons. Ruto and Kenyatta still holds true. However, as a Daily Nation cartoon so hilariously asked, what does Kalonzo bring to the table? Hon. Ruto was instrumental in rallying the Kalenjin Nation, almost to a man, in rejecting the draft. Hon. Kenyatta has been identified as the primary flag-bearer from Central Kenya, if the Maragwa 'fund-raiser' was an indication of the feelings of the House of Mumbi. Kalonzo could not rally the Akamba behind him in a convincing manner. Indeed, he was even thrown out of Kathiani by the same people he would be begging for votes in 2012. It seems his halcyon days, when he managed to pass between Raila and Kibaki in 2007, are behind him and he has to start from scratch rebuilding his Ukambani juggernaut afresh. Will he succeed?
It is said that you underestimate the Vice-President at your own peril. He has demonstrated that he is capable of removing obstacles that stand in his way. Poor Mutua Katuku and Kalembe Ndile learnt this the hard way when the ODM-K juggernaut rolled over them in 2007. Katuku has faded from sight and Kalembe is busy trying to resurrect his political career by jumping onto every anti-Kalonzo bandwagon that rolls into town. However, Charity Ngilu and John Harun Mwau proved that Kalonzo's writ does not run large over the entire Ukambani region and that it was possible to outspend and out-strategise the wily V-P.
Just like in the dying days of the Nyayo Era, it is now said that the man to beat in 2012 will be Raila Amolo Odinga. Who among the minnows will it be: Ruto, Uhuru or Kalonzo? Those reading the political tea leaves tell us that Ruto, Uhuru and Kalonzo must present a united front if they have a chance of denying Raila the presidency a second time around because between the three of them they control a larger political constituency than Raila. If this is true, Ruto and Uhuru have already proven that for the time being they command a far larger and visible political constituency than the V-P; that they have cemented their places as the leaders to beat in their respective regional strongholds. For Kalonzo to play at their level, he must prove that he commands a far larger constituency in Ukambani than what was revealed during the recently concluded Referendum. He must overcome the perceived view that 'his' people no longer trust him and that he can still bring out the Akamba en masse to vote for him.
2012 is unique because we will be choosing a President and Deputy-President. The winning candidate does not have the luxury of appointing his supporters from the legislature to the Cabinet. That particular pork-barrel has been yanked away by the New Constitution. Therefore, Kalonzo has to persuade his erstwhile allies that he is the primus inter pares, the first among equals. Will he be able to do so especially with his apparently diminished pull in Ukambani? He must also ensure that a sizable chunk of the 290 elected MPs in the 1st Parliament of the 2nd Republic consists of his allies or members of his political party otherwise he may be unable to govern effectively with what will essentially be a hostile Parliament nipping at his heels. Kalonzo must begin the arduous task of building a winning national coalition that will ensure that his party or his party in a coalition with other parties controls Parliament. This means ensuring that he teams up with people who will ensure that the Presidential votes from a majority of the 47 counties swings for him. If he is unable to do this, hs career is as good as over. If he loses the presidential election he will not even have the satisfaction of being appointed V-P again or a Cabinet Secretary. The Constitution, again, has removed this option from the table. He can't even be appointed to some parastatal or an ambassadorship somewhere. He may have to retreat to the Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation, though no one knows what exactly it does or indeed, whether it has done anything.
But it is in Ukambani that his machinations may come to nought. There will be 3 counties up for grabs with about 60 county seats in contention. John Harun Mwau, Charity Ngilu and Kalembe Ndile will ensure that Kalonzo spends valuable capital ensuring that his supporters control Makueni and Kitui Counties. For the moment, it does seem that Ruto and Uhuru can count on their supporters controlling the seats in the Counties in their backyards. This is not the case in Ukambani for Kalonzo. He has managed to lose the support of the MPs in his own party. It may be that Kiema and Charles Kilonzo and Wavinya Ndeti are not the powerhouses they style themselves to be, but they can ensure that the battle is lost. It may be that their rebellions are signs of things to come. Between them and Charity Ngilu and John Harun Mwau, they control 5 constituencies and approximately 25 county seats. These are sufficient to create momentum against the incumbent V-P and create the impression that he does not have a grip on things in his own house. That could prove dangerous while running for the presidency. It may create the impression nationally that he is not a safe pair of hands to hand over the reins of state to. And that would put paid to his ambition of being president.
For the time being, the politicians will be busy ensuring that the Constitution is implemented in a manner that will ensure that they continue to enjoy many privileges when the next general elections occur. That means that Kalonzo has an opportunity to rebuild his political constituency and build up sufficient political capital such that in 2012 he will be a serious player in the same rank as the resilient Prime Minister. That mans persuading, arm-twisting and otherwise commanding support among the remaining two power-brokers. If he fails to prepare sufficiently, 2012 will be his Waterloo and he will have none to blame but himself.
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