Surveying the political landscape today, one would be mistaken for thinking that it was November 2007. The ODM-PNU battle of the titans looks like it is still going on, never mind the promises of working together and the recent mollifying speeches of the flag-bearers. It's too bad that this is Kibaki's last term. Lame ducks have never been able to exert authority or bring their wayward charges to heel. With Kibaki's customary laissez faire approach to ruling, his most ardent lieutenants have taken the opportunity to roil the waters and mischief-make in the hope that one of them becomes the flag-bearer in the next general elections. I think that for us to expect the coalition to last beyond January 2009 is wildly optimistic. Martha Karua and George Saitoti have taken such hardline stances towards the amnesty agenda of the ODM team that I am sure this will be a big bone of contention in the next few weeks if not till the coalition falls apart, as it inevitably must.
Commentators have argued that those accused of arson and murder cannot simply be let free. I agree with them. However, it is not fair that a majority of the young men and women behind bars are overwhelmingly the supporters of the ODM. It would have not raised such a stink if the same proportion of the PNU lot were enjoying the hospitality of the state. But this is not so. Karua and Saitoti are being less than frank when they claim that the justice, law and order machinery of the state was employed fairly and without bias. It is because of this that the ODM would like to see its footsoldiers let free. I wonder if Raila's offer of negotitiation with the Mungiki was targetted at softening Karua's and Saitoti's positions in the hope that he would broker an agreement that the Mungiki would not be slaughtered by the police and the ODM murderers would be let free? If this is so, Raila's strategy is falling apart.
I therefore, cannot see this government lasting beyond january 2009 and general elections may be called sooner than we hoped. This time round, matters will end much worse. The so-called Agenda No. 4 of the Medfiation Process is not being discussed let alone being implemented. If we do not get a new constitution by the end of the year and if no changes are made to the election process and law, violence is all but guaranteed during the next general election. This time round, whether the politicins like it or not, to quell it will require more than promises and lies. I don't think that the calm we have enjoyed in the last two months can be described as peace. This is the quiet before the tornado blows away your whole life. Watch and be very very afraid.
Commentators have argued that those accused of arson and murder cannot simply be let free. I agree with them. However, it is not fair that a majority of the young men and women behind bars are overwhelmingly the supporters of the ODM. It would have not raised such a stink if the same proportion of the PNU lot were enjoying the hospitality of the state. But this is not so. Karua and Saitoti are being less than frank when they claim that the justice, law and order machinery of the state was employed fairly and without bias. It is because of this that the ODM would like to see its footsoldiers let free. I wonder if Raila's offer of negotitiation with the Mungiki was targetted at softening Karua's and Saitoti's positions in the hope that he would broker an agreement that the Mungiki would not be slaughtered by the police and the ODM murderers would be let free? If this is so, Raila's strategy is falling apart.
I therefore, cannot see this government lasting beyond january 2009 and general elections may be called sooner than we hoped. This time round, matters will end much worse. The so-called Agenda No. 4 of the Medfiation Process is not being discussed let alone being implemented. If we do not get a new constitution by the end of the year and if no changes are made to the election process and law, violence is all but guaranteed during the next general election. This time round, whether the politicins like it or not, to quell it will require more than promises and lies. I don't think that the calm we have enjoyed in the last two months can be described as peace. This is the quiet before the tornado blows away your whole life. Watch and be very very afraid.
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