This is the calm before the storm. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto made a triumphal entry after their brief sojourn in The Hague. Their show of force was meant to awaken in the Prime Minister the uncomfortable truth that despite his best efforts, the two were a political force to be reckoned with. It now emerges that Kenyan politicians are adept at betrayal as the former MP for Bahari, Joe Khamisi, reveals in his new book, "The Politics of Betrayal: Diary of a Kenyan Legislator." Apparently, William Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka and Uhuru Kenyatta were in discussions in 2007 to unite in order to stymie Raila Odinga's chances at the hustings, until, that is, Kalonzo struck his own deal with Mwai Kibaki and William Ruto stood four-square behind Raila Odinga. On this Easter holiday, not much political action is taking place, especially considering that the ICC trials are still hanging fire and the date of the next General Elections has been generally accepted as taking place in August 2012. What are these men and women planning for the next few months?
ODM is in shambles; William Ruto has emerged as the most serious threat to party unity and the Prime Minister has demonstrated that he will brook no opposition in his quest for the presidency. However, the union of Uhuru Kenyatta, the chairman of KANU, Kalonzo Musyoka, the chairman of ODM-K, and William Ruto is not yet cast in stone and despite Najib Balala's exhortations, it remains unclear whether the three will eventually form a separate party just as ODM was formed in the aftermath of the 2005 referendum. Feverish rumours continue to imply that the Uhuru and Ruto do not trust Kalonzo, and that Ruto and Uhuru may yet have a falling out. The three may be major political players, variously representing ethnic vote banks of considerable size, but there is no guarantee that their electorates will continue to behave like sheep and be led around by the three for long.
The political re-awakening of the Kenyan people may not receive much publicity from the media houses, but it is anyone's guess whether Kenyans will be persuaded to follow a man simply because they speak the same language. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister seems to be embarking on his own version of shuttle diplomacy, not so much as to guarantee the trial of his political challengers but perhaps, to boost his international profile, reassuring foreign powers as to his suitability to lead Kenya come 2013. Whether his travels will ensure their support for him come 2012 remains to be seen or whether he will translate his international goodwill into votes.
However, it is other players who may determine the success or failure of the various strategies being formed by the major players. Martha Karua has emerged as a serious, albeit underrated, force in Kenyan politics. Charity Ngilu and Wangari Maathai set the ball rolling in 1992 when they became major political actors after the reintroduction of multi-partyism in Kenya. Karua has inherited their legacy, managing to keep hold of the chairmanship of NARC-K, despite the apparent refusal of some of its male members from seriously considering her as a potential presidential challenger. As with many national issues, her ethnicity is being used to deny her the opportunity, with two of her recent elected MPs plumping for Uhuru Kenyatta as the choice of Central Kenya. Despite this, she has soldiered on and it remains to be seen whether she will magnanimously step aside in favour of the KANU chairman or she will throw her lot with his nemesis, Raila Odinga, or whether she will go it alone and split the Central Kenya vote. She has managed to keep her name in the spotlight, participating in run-of-the-mill events like the recent Chaguo La Teeniez jamboree and thereby shoring up her profile among the youthful members of Kenyan society. If she manages to turn their enthusiasm into votes, she will have managed to pull off a great stunt at the expense of the PM and DPM.
So, for the moment, the field consists of Odinga, Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo and Karua. In September, it will be confirmed whether Ruto and Uhuru will stand trial at The Hague and whether or not President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga will stand by their men or let them swing in the wind if the charges are confirmed. Meanwhile, Parliament will consider Bills in the implementation of the Constitution and the Constitution Implementation Commission will keep on fighting to see that only Bills it has approved make their way to the National Assembly. Civil society in Kenya is all but dead and their role in the Constitution implementation process remains patchy at best. Given the high commodity prices caused by the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, Kenyans are more concerned about the escalating cost of living to keep a keen eye on the political or Constitution implementation process. We may be in for a turbulent period and Kenyans should prepare for more 'prayer' and 'peace' rallies, with various presidential hopefuls demonstrating their common touch.
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