The more things change ...

Now that we know know what US diplomats think of Kibaki, Raila, Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto, we should begin re-examining why these men think that they are the Second Coming. They have been portrayed in such unflattering terms that it beggars the mind that they still think that they are capable of deciding what is right or wrong about our body politic. It now emerges that President Kibaki has always been in control and that the stories that he is in thrall to his advisors and cronies is bullshit. It emerges that Prime Minister Odinga's calculations have led him to slow down the pace f reform in the hope that he will keep his motley crew together. It emerges that Uhuru Kenyatta has no reason to engage in graft, that he is hardworking, but that he does not have the capacity to lead that many of his supporters claim he does. It emerges that neither the Americans nor Kibaki and his cronies trust William Ruto, seeing in him the embodiment of impunity and corruption. In perhaps the least flattering portrait, it emerges that Kalonzo is an "intellectual lightweight", but this is not news to many of us.

In a just world, we would rate these men on their political and development records. In a just world, their wealth would be of little significance in determining who would become our next president. In a just world, the voice of the people would be heard. In a just world, our votes would count for something. But this is not a just world. They are rich or have rich backers. They control the electoral process. They control their political parties. The voice of the masses is just a voice; it has no effect whatsoever in their decision-making. If they spared a thought for the ordinary man on the street, it has been well camouflaged. What they do and what they say is calculated to ensure that one of them succeeds President Kibaki in 2012.

President Kibaki has appointed special envoys to assist Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka in his task to seek a deferral of Kenya's ICC trials for a year. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Odinga has opposed this plan. William Ruto has accused the PM of abandoning the men and women who went to the mattresses for hi in 2007 and 2008. His accusation has resonated with a section of ODM, especially Members of Parliament from the populous and vote rich Rift Valley and they have closed ranks with the embattled Eldoret North MP. Indeed, it is now widely assumed that Henry Kosgey, Raila Odinga's party chairman, and Sally Kosgei are firmly in the Ruto camp, allegedly representing the interests of the people from the North Rift. ODM is sending a trial balloon by expelling Isaac Ruto and Aden Duale from the party. If their expulsion has no ill-effect on the party, or if it compels the other rebels to rethink their rebellion, then the gambit will have paid off. If the reverse happens, then Raila Odinga will be entering a period of great political risk and it is uncertain whether he will survive to run for the presidency come the next general elections.

It is now apparent that Mwai Kibaki is loath to see Raila Odinga succeed him in State House. It is also apparent that he has fallen in with politicians from the Mount Kenya region in seeking to see Uhuru Kenyatta take up the mantle of the presidency. William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka are mere cogs in the wheels that are turning to spare Uhuru an ICC trial. It remains to be seen how they will be rewarded if Uhuru Kenyatta takes the presidency in 2012. They must know that regardless of the process that will be followed to choose who the flag-bearer will be from among them, President Kibaki and his men prefer Uhuru Kenyatta to anyone else. Regardless of how many turns the Central Kenya region has had at the presidency, they are determined that Uhuru will succeed Kibaki. How Kalonzo and Ruto view this is anyone's guess; but, perhaps, their animus against the PM is so strong that they are willing to live with an Uhuru presidency at the cost of their own ambitions. The Uhuru Project has been revived, nine years after Kibaki himself demolished it. The more things change, the more they remain the same.